Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

884 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Kalshi Launches KalshiEco to Boost Prediction Market With Solana and Base

Kalshi Launches KalshiEco to Boost Prediction Market With Solana and Base

The post Kalshi Launches KalshiEco to Boost Prediction Market With Solana and Base appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. On Wednesday, Kalshi introduces the KalshiEco hub with the support from Solana and Base to bolster prediction market growth. The initiative would bolster selected builders, traders, and creators with hands-on support, including grant funding, engineering assistance, referral programs, etc.  Kalshi faces legal scrutiny in Massachusetts as the firm is accused of running unlicensed sports betting under the guise of a prediction market. Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market operator, is expanding its operations into the broader trading and builder community by introducing KalshiEco, a program that the operator is experimenting with to serve developers, traders, and creators trying on-chain and off-chain prediction market projects. The action is happening at a time when the company is under increased legal scrutiny, such as in a recent case in Massachusetts, which alleged that the company was running what state regulators term as an illegal form of sports betting. KalshiEco Ecosystem Growth The KalshiEco program is designed such that it establishes feedback between the builders and audiences. Developers are also encouraged to release new applications; creators, on the other hand, promote those tools to a wider audience, which in turn is likely to draw more attention and further development of the project. This cycle has been positioned by the company as a growth flywheel that is meant to ensure that momentum is maintained within the ecosystem. Among the selected participants, various incentives are being offered as part of the initiative. Among them, there is direct funding in the form of grants, verified badges on the social media X, individual referral programs, and engineering-specific support of projects that need more technical rigor. Other benefits are competitions in trade, branded products, and continuous community self-identification. These resources are being made by the company more as a working aid than as a marketing gift and this is…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kalshi launches KalshiEco hub with Solana and Base to drive prediction markets

Kalshi launches KalshiEco hub with Solana and Base to drive prediction markets

The post Kalshi launches KalshiEco hub with Solana and Base to drive prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Kalshi has launched the KalshiEco Hub in partnership with Solana and Base. The initiative aims to innovate and advance prediction markets using blockchain technology. Kalshi launched KalshiEco hub today in partnership with Solana and Base to advance prediction market innovation. The prediction market platform announced the new initiative through its social media channels. The hub represents Kalshi’s expansion into blockchain-based prediction market development alongside the Solana network and Coinbase’s Base layer-2 solution. Kalshi operates as a regulated prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. The company has previously focused on traditional prediction markets covering topics ranging from political elections to economic indicators. The partnership brings together Kalshi’s regulatory expertise with Solana’s blockchain infrastructure and Base’s layer-2 scaling technology. Base serves as Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network designed to reduce transaction costs and increase processing speed. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-launches-kalshieco-hub-with-solana-and-base-to-drive-prediction-markets/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kalshi exec submits Hyperliquid improvement proposal to solve prediction market deployment challenges

Kalshi exec submits Hyperliquid improvement proposal to solve prediction market deployment challenges

The post Kalshi exec submits Hyperliquid improvement proposal to solve prediction market deployment challenges appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Four authors submitted Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 4 (HIP-4) on Sept. 16, introducing “Event Perpetuals” to enable prediction markets on the platform’s order book infrastructure. The proposal lists Kalshi’s head of crypto, John Wang, among its four co-authors. The text addresses limitations in Hyperliquid’s existing HIP-3 builder-deployed perpetuals for prediction market use cases. The current infrastructure requires continuous oracle updates and limits price changes to 1% per tick, making binary event resolution impractical. Event Perpetuals’ goal is to eliminate continuous oracle feeds and funding payments, with prices determined entirely by trading activity. The contracts settle with binary payoffs reflecting market-implied probabilities between 0 and 1, resolving instantly to either outcome upon event conclusion. The proposal demonstrates current limitations through NFL betting scenarios, where sportsbook odds update as step functions during games. Under HIP-3 constraints, settling a market from neutral (0.5) to zero probability would require 50 minutes due to tick limitations, creating arbitrage opportunities for informed traders. The attached oracle settling chart illustrates the asymmetric resolution problem, showing rapid settlement toward 1.0 but gradual decay toward 0, highlighting infrastructure challenges that motivated the new proposal. Oracle price settlement shows asymmetric timing, with upward movement from 0.5 to 1.0 occurring rapidly while downward settlement requires approximately 50 minutes. Image: HIP-4 Auction mechanism for fair price discovery Event Perpetuals launch through single-price clearing auctions lasting approximately 15 minutes. The system evaluates all candidate prices to maximize matched volume, with tie-breaking favoring minimal imbalance and prices closest to 50%. The clearing mechanism diagram shows bid and ask distributions across price levels, with the system calculating optimal clearing prices that balance supply and demand. Auction mechanism diagram shows bid-ask order matching across price levels, with optimal clearing price of $0.50 maximizing matched volume at 270 contracts. Image: HIP-4 Orders execute uniformly at the determined opening…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Markets Brace for Fed Rate Cut as Futures and Prediction Markets Show Near-Certain Trim

Markets Brace for Fed Rate Cut as Futures and Prediction Markets Show Near-Certain Trim

The post Markets Brace for Fed Rate Cut as Futures and Prediction Markets Show Near-Certain Trim appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. According to the CME Fedwatch tool and prediction markets, traders are betting the U.S. Federal Reserve will trim rates tomorrow when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathers. On top of that, Stephen Miran, a key economic adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, snagged Senate confirmation on Sept. 15, 2025, to join the Federal Reserve’s […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/markets-brace-for-fed-rate-cut-as-futures-and-prediction-markets-show-near-certain-trim/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kashi Is Ready To Fight For Prediction Markets Amid New Lawsuit

Kashi Is Ready To Fight For Prediction Markets Amid New Lawsuit

The post Kashi Is Ready To Fight For Prediction Markets Amid New Lawsuit appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction market platform Kalshi has vowed to fight a new lawsuit from the US state of Massachusetts, which accuses the company of offering unlicensed sports betting to residents. “We are proud to be the company that has pioneered this technology and stand ready to defend it once again in a court of law,” a spokesperson for Kalshi told Cointelegraph on Friday. “Prediction markets are a critical innovation of the 21st century, and all Americans should be able to access them,” Kalshi added.  Kalshi is prepared to fight amid other legal challenges The civil lawsuit, filed on Friday by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in Suffolk County Superior Court, alleged that Kalshi disguises sports wagering as “event contracts” and violates the state’s strict gambling laws. Source: Dustin Gouker “Kalshi is violating the Commonwealth’s strict sports wagering laws and regulations by offering unlicensed sports wagering to Massachusetts residents,” the filing stated.  It further claimed that as of May 2025, more than three-quarters of Kalshi’s trading volume comes from sports — a larger share, the filing said, than industry giants DraftKings or FanDuel. However, the Kalshi spokesperson said that Massachusetts’s regulators chose legal action over directly resolving the matter: “Rather than engage in dialogue with Kalshi as many other states have done, Massachusetts is trying to block Kalshi’s innovations by relying on outdated laws and ideas.” Kalshi argues that it is regulated by the CFTC Kalshi has previously argued that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates it at the federal level and does not fall under state gambling jurisdiction. It has received cease-and-desist orders from other states, including Arizona, Montana, Ohio, and Illinois. Related: Polymarket partners with Chainlink to improve market resolution accuracy The case comes as blockchain-powered prediction market Polymarket is reportedly preparing to launch in the US. Citing sources familiar with…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Polymarket Targets $10B Valuation With US Launch Plans

Polymarket Targets $10B Valuation With US Launch Plans

The post Polymarket Targets $10B Valuation With US Launch Plans appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Blockchain-powered prediction market Polymarket is reportedly preparing a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billion, highlighting the surge of investor interest in prediction markets and crypto ventures. Citing sources familiar with the conversation, Business Insider reported Friday that Polymarket is exploring re-entering the US while seeking new funding that could more than triple its June valuation of $1 billion. One investor valued the company at up to $10 billion, the report said. As Cointelegraph reported, Polymarket was raising a $200 million round in June led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, an early backer of companies including OpenAI, Paxos and Palantir. Polymarket, a decentralized platform that allows users to trade event outcomes without a centralized bookmaker, gained prominence during the 2024 US presidential election, where its markets correctly anticipated Donald Trump’s victory. Polymarket activity skyrocketed during the US presidential election, based on monthly active traders. Source: Dune The company was barred from serving US users in 2022 following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In July, however, it acquired Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX, which could pave the way for a regulated return to the US market. In September, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to QCX, granting relief from certain federal reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event contracts. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said the decision effectively gives the platform “the green light to go live in the USA.” Source: Shayne Coplan Related: Trump Jr. joins Polymarket board as prediction market eyes US comeback Blockchain prediction markets gain steam The move comes as rival platform Kalshi is reportedly nearing a $5 billion funding round, according to The Information. That follows a Paradigm-led raise in June, when the company secured $185 million at a $2 billion valuation. Kalshi’s recent momentum stems partly from a 2024…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Polymarket Partners With Chainlink To Boost Prediction Markets

Polymarket Partners With Chainlink To Boost Prediction Markets

The post Polymarket Partners With Chainlink To Boost Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, is integrating Chainlink’s oracle network to improve the accuracy and speed of its market resolutions, the companies announced Friday. Polymarket has partnered with Chainlink to integrate its data standard into Polymarket’s resolution process, according to a Friday press release shared with Cointelegraph. The collaboration will initially focus on enhancing the accuracy and speed of asset pricing resolutions, with plans to expand into additional markets. While Polymarket’s pricing prediction integration with Chainlink is live on the Polygon mainnet immediately, the parties expect to explore additional prediction markets using Chainlink in the future. Polymarket uses Polygon by default Chainlink’s integration marks a significant development for Polymarket as the platform uses the Polygon blockchain — a layer-2 (L2) Ethereum scaling solution — as its underlying network. Launched in 2020, Polymarket has emerged as a major crypto-enabled prediction market platform, where users can place bets on the outcomes of future events using digital assets like Circle’s USDC (USDC) stablecoin on the Polygon blockchain. While Polygon is focused on delivering faster and cheaper transactions by processing transactions off the main Ethereum chain, Chainlink provides an oracle network that connects smart contracts on the blockchain with real-world external data. As such, while Polygon is Polymarket’s chain by default, Chainlink will be sending data to settle the markets into the Polygon chain in production. Related: US Government taps Chainlink, Pyth to publish economic data onchain “Polymarket’s decision to integrate Chainlink’s proven oracle infrastructure is a pivotal milestone that greatly enhances how prediction markets are created and settled,” Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said, adding: “When market outcomes are resolved by high-quality data and tamper-proof computation from oracle networks, prediction markets evolve into reliable, real-time signals the world can trust.” “Subjective” markets explored In addition to pricing market integration, which has a clear,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Polymarket Teams With Chainlink on Fast Crypto Price Feeds

Polymarket Teams With Chainlink on Fast Crypto Price Feeds

The post Polymarket Teams With Chainlink on Fast Crypto Price Feeds appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket integrates Chainlink oracles for faster, tamper-proof crypto price resolutions Chainlink’s automation enables near-instant settlement for 15-minute prediction markets Polymarket expands with QCEX acquisition and X partnership to scale U.S. operations Polymarket has teamed up with Chainlink to launch crypto prediction markets that settle in 15 minutes with near-instant resolution. The integration is now live on Polygon mainnet and combines Polymarket’s platform with Chainlink’s oracle network. Why Chainlink Oracles Matter for Polymarket Chainlink Data Streams provide timestamped, low-latency price feeds while Chainlink Automation handles on-chain settlement. This removes delays that typically slow prediction markets and ensures tamper-proof, verifiable results. Near-Instant Settlement Boosts Market Reliability The system enables Bitcoin and other crypto markets to resolve almost instantly, reducing the risk of disputes. Hundreds of live trading pairs are covered in the first rollout, with plans to expand into more complex markets. What’s Next for Prediction Market Innovation Beyond price outcomes, Polymarket and Chainlink aim to tackle subjective markets that today depend on social voting, a step that could transform how prediction markets are run. Chainlink Secures Data Accuracy at Scale Chainlink’s oracle network already secures nearly $100 billion in DeFi value and supports tens of trillions in transactions.  Co-founder Sergey Nazarov called the partnership a step toward making prediction markets reliable real-time information sources. How Chainlink eliminates single points of failure is by decentralizing data inputs, thereby minimizing manipulation risks and strengthening user trust that match real market prices. Polymarket Expands With QCEX and X Partnerships Polymarket recently closed a $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, to re-enter the U.S. market. The platform also struck a partnership with X to deliver personalized market recommendations. Why Polymarket’s Expansion Strategy Matters These moves highlight Polymarket’s intent to scale operations and attract institutional users while delivering new retail-focused services. Related:…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Chainlink Cements 62% Dominance After Inking Major Polymarket Deal to Supercharge Prediction Market Accuracy

Chainlink Cements 62% Dominance After Inking Major Polymarket Deal to Supercharge Prediction Market Accuracy

Chainlink has deepened its grip on the oracle market after announcing a major partnership with Polymarket, the world’s largest on-chain prediction market, to enhance market resolution accuracy and speed. The deal cements Chainlink’s dominance at 62% of the oracle sector, according to DeFiLlama, indicating its growing role as key infrastructure for decentralized finance.Source: DefiLlama Chainlink Data Streams Now Power Bitcoin and Ether Prediction Markets on Polymarket According to the announcement, Polymarket has integrated Chainlink’s Data Streams and Automation services into its resolution process, with the system now live on the Polygon mainnet. The collaboration allows near-instant settlement of prediction markets, beginning with asset-pricing markets on assets such as Bitcoin and Ether. Chainlink’s decentralized networks deliver low-latency, timestamped data while eliminating single points of failure, ensuring that resolutions are both secure and verifiable. Polymarket, which has grown rapidly since launching in 2020, has positioned itself as a global hub for real-time information. The platform recently acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, in a $112 million deal to prepare for a return to the U.S. market. It has also partnered with X to integrate personalized market recommendations into the social platform. The latest move with Chainlink further strengthens Polymarket’s infrastructure, reducing reliance on subjective voting systems and minimizing resolution risks in more complex market types. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov described the deal as a “pivotal milestone,” adding that resolving markets with tamper-proof computation and high-quality data transforms prediction markets into reliable signs “the world can trust.” The integration marks the beginning of a broader collaboration between the two companies, with plans to expand beyond asset-pricing into more subjective prediction categories. The agreement comes at a time when Chainlink has accelerated its expansion into traditional finance and government-linked data services. On August 11, the firm partnered with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to provide on-chain foreign exchange and precious metals rates through its Data Streams, using ICE’s Consolidated Feed sourced from over 300 marketplaces. Two weeks later, Japanese financial giant SBI Group revealed a collaboration with Chainlink to develop crypto tools for banks and institutions in Japan and the Asia-Pacific region, with an initial focus on tokenized bonds and stablecoin reserves. On August 28, the U.S. Department of Commerce began publishing official economic data on-chain via Chainlink, including GDP and inflation indicators, marking the first time government statistics were made verifiable on blockchain networks. With nearly $100 billion in total value locked in DeFi secured by its oracles and trillions of dollars in transaction value supported to date, Chainlink continues to assert itself as the backbone of decentralized data infrastructure. Polymarket Cleared by U.S. Regulators as Platform Eyes Major Expansion The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in July closed their investigations into Polymarket without taking enforcement action. The probes, launched in late 2022, examined whether the New York-based platform continued to allow U.S. users access after agreeing to block them under a prior settlement. The regulatory closure marks a turning point for Polymarket, which has since secured clearance to re-enter the U.S. market. On September 3, the CFTC granted a no-action letter covering event contracts through QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC, entities Polymarket acquired earlier this year in a $112 million deal. The relief provides a framework for offering compliant prediction contracts, shielding participants from enforcement tied to swap reporting and recordkeeping requirements. Polymarket has rapidly scaled into the largest prediction market globally, processing more than $8 billion in wagers, including $2.5 billion during the 2024 U.S. election cycle. In the first half of 2025 alone, users placed around $6 billion in bets. Currently, the total volume of prediction markets is $1.1 billion, with Polymarket accounting for more than 25 million positions and a user base of more than 1.2 million traders. The platform is also nearing a $200 million funding round led by Founders Fund that would value it at $1 billion. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital has joined as an investor and advisory partner, indicating growing institutional and political backing for the fast-expanding platform

Author: CryptoNews
Polymarket taps Chainlink to power real-time prediction markets

Polymarket taps Chainlink to power real-time prediction markets

The post Polymarket taps Chainlink to power real-time prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Polymarket is integrating Chainlink’s data services to provide real-time asset pricing prediction markets. The collaboration supports automated, tamper-proof market settlements on Polygon using Chainlink oracles and automation. Polymarket has adopted Chainlink’s data standard to power its resolution process, the system that determines the final outcome of prediction markets, according to a Friday announcement. Starting with asset pricing markets, the partnership will work to deliver more accurate and timely resolutions for Polymarket prediction markets. The two teams also aim for future expansion after initial deployment. The integration, now live on the Polygon mainnet, enables the creation of real-time prediction markets around asset pricing, including hundreds of live crypto trading pairs. “Polymarket’s decision to integrate Chainlink’s proven oracle infrastructure is a pivotal milestone that greatly enhances how prediction markets are created and settled,” said Sergey Nazarov, co-founder of Chainlink. “When market outcomes are resolved by high-quality data and tamper-proof computation from oracle networks, prediction markets evolve into reliable, real-time signals the world can trust. The partnership leverages Chainlink Data Streams and Chainlink Automation to provide low-latency, timestamped oracle reports and automated on-chain settlement of markets. Chainlink’s data infrastructure has secured nearly $100 billion in DeFi total value and enabled tens of trillions in transaction value. The platform is now powering a US government initiative to publish official economic data on multiple blockchains. Polymarket is a decentralized platform where users trade shares on real-world events, and the resolution process determines the actual outcome, allowing markets to close and enabling winning shares to be paid out. The company recently acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million, opening the door to a US market return. It has also joined forces with Elon Musk’s X to provide an integrated product with data-driven insights and personalized recommendations. ] Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/real-time-prediction-markets-chainlink/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews