Trump maintains Iranian port blockade despite strait reopening

Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports continues despite the strait’s reopening, and the market for a US blockade lift by May 31 sits at 86% YES amid conflicting announcements about the waterway’s status.

## Market reaction

The April 17 market has collapsed to 8.5% YES with only a day left for resolution. The April 19 market trades at 9.5% YES, reflecting a slim chance of a near-term announcement. The gap between these short-dated contracts and the May 31 market at 86% YES shows traders expect resolution over weeks, not days, likely through diplomatic negotiations.

Blockade markets saw a combined $33,260 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. Volume concentrated on the April 17 contract at $16,280. Order book depth on the May 31 market shows it takes $3,730 to move the price 5 points, meaning decent liquidity but vulnerability to large single trades.

## Why it matters

The blockade persists even after the strait reopened, and Iran has threatened to re-close the strait if its conditions aren’t met. This standoff means odds are unlikely to shift much without a concrete diplomatic or military development. A YES share for May 31 at 86¢ offers a 1.22x return, a modest payout that prices in high probability of resolution but leaves room for the deal to fall apart.

## What to watch

Trump’s public comments on Iran or the blockade are the most likely catalyst for price movement. Pentagon updates on naval posture in the strait could also shift these markets quickly.

## API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.