SMA Cross Signals Final Drop

Bitcoin is showing pressure on both the short term and higher time frame charts, with one setup questioning the latest rebound and another pointing to a possible final bear market washout. Together, the charts suggest BTC may still face another volatile reset before any stronger move higher becomes clear.

Bitcoin Rebound Looks Corrective While $64,974 Holds as Key Support

This 1 hour BTC chart suggests the latest upside move may have been corrective, not the start of a full trend reversal. Man of Bitcoin points to the rebound forming in three waves, which usually signals a temporary recovery rather than a stronger impulsive move higher.

BTCUSD 1H Chart: Source: TradingView,Man of Bitcoin on X

The chart also shows BTC reacting to resistance in the $68,300 to $70,300 region, where the 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786 Fibonacci levels sit. Because price failed to break through that area, the move appears to fit a wave B or wave 2 structure instead of a confirmed breakout.

The key level on this setup is $64,974. As long as BTC stays above that support, both outlined scenarios remain open, including another push higher before the next larger move. However, if price loses that level, the chart would likely favor a deeper decline and weaken the corrective rebound case.

Above, the main upside targets remain near $71,759 and then around $75,967, both marked as resistance on the chart. Still, the chart’s current message is cautious. The bounce has not shown enough strength yet, and resistance rejection keeps the short term structure uncertain.

Bitcoin 3 Day SMA Cross Points to a Final Washout Before a New Bull Cycle

This Bitcoin 3 day chart from Ali Charts tracks how the 50 SMA and 200 SMA have behaved across past bear market bottoms. The main idea is simple: each time these two moving averages crossed, Bitcoin had already fallen sharply from its peak, but the market still saw one more deep selloff before the next major bull cycle began.

BTC 3 Day Chart: Source: Ali Charts on X

In the 2014 cycle, Bitcoin had already dropped 72% before the cross appeared in December. Then, 23 days later, the market saw another 52% decline. According to the chart, that final drop marked the real bottom before a new uptrend started.

The same pattern appeared again in 2018. Bitcoin had already fallen 67% from its top before the moving average cross formed in November. After that, the market dropped another 50% within 33 days. That final capitulation became the base for the next long term recovery.

The 2022 cycle followed a similar structure, although it took a more extended path. Bitcoin had already declined 50% before the cross appeared in May. Then, 33 days later, price fell another 45%. However, the chart also shows that a lower low formed 156 days after that, which means the full bear structure took longer to finish.

So the chart’s message is not that the moving average cross marks the exact bottom. Instead, it suggests the cross has historically appeared before the final washout stage. In other words, the signal has acted more like a warning that one last deeper reset may come before a stronger bull market begins.