Topline
Federal firearms experts haven’t been able to conclusively match bullet fragments from the killing of Charlie Kirk to the rifle found at the scene of his murder, court documents indicate—but there’s also no evidence to suggest it’s not a match, despite online conspiracy theorists misusing the information to fuel wild theories about the murder.
Charlie Kirk speaks before his death at Utah Valley University on Sept. 10, 2025 in Orem, Utah.
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Key Facts
Documents filed by the defense in the court case against Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old charged in the murder of conservative activist Kirk, say experts with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives haven’t been able to prove a bullet fragment recovered during an autopsy of Kirk came from the Mauser Model 98 rifle allegedly tied to Robinson.
The ATF’s report is not yet available to the public but Robinson’s attorneys cite a summary of the report in court filings and say the agency was “unable to identify the bullet recovered at autopsy to the rifle allegedly tied to Mr. Robinson,” fueling a range of conspiracy theories.
Robinson’s defense team said in the court filings it may try to use ATF’s analysis to clear Robinson of blame in the shooting, though prosecutors have presented other evidence against him including alleged text messages and confessions, surveillance and witness evidence.
Conspiracy theories have flown around Kirk’s death since September and have been fueled both in online forums and by prominent political figures like Candace Owens, Steve Bannon, Laura Loomer, podcaster Joe Rogan and the world’s richest person, Elon Musk.
After the new filing, Owens—in a widely viewed post—suggested it supported her theory that there is no convincing evidence against Robinson.
And earlier this month, Trump’s former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent, who resigned over his opposition to the war in Iran, told Tucker Carlson that last year his department was prevented by the FBI from investigating whether a foreign country might have played a role in Kirk’s death.
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Crucial Quote
“The defense may very well decide to offer the testimony of the ATF firearm analyst as exculpatory evidence,” Robinson’s attorneys wrote in their recent court filing, in which they ask to delay a preliminary hearing scheduled for May until they can review materials, including the ATF bullet analysis and other tests ordered by the FBI.
What Are The Conspiracy Theories About Charlie Kirk’s Death?
Most theories postulate Kirk was killed either by a second shooter or that his death was an “inside job” orchestrated either by someone close to him for personal gain or by powerful people looking to silence him. Owens, who had a close personal relationship with Kirk, has fueled rumors that Israel had something to do with Kirk’s death (Israeli officials have denied involvement) and has also suggested Kirk was “betrayed” by people close to him and that law enforcement agencies are covering up a bigger crime. Some theories say he had to have been shot from closer range than authorities say Robinson fired from because of damage to his body, a claim disputed by his security team and others close to Kirk. One dramatic—and completely unsupported by facts—claim is that Kirk’s shooting was staged and he isn’t actually dead.
Why Might The Bullet Test Be Inconclusive?
Analysts can fail to match ballistics for a number of reasons, including fragment damage, lack of markings on the bullet, a limited sample size or other problems. When a bullet is fired, the gun it is fired from leaves microscopic marks on the bullet and cartridge case that the National Institute of Standards and Technology likens to fingerprints. If investigators recover bullets from a crime scene, examiners can compare bullets and cartridge cases under a split-screen microscope to determine if the gun and the bullet are a match, the NIST explains. It is not uncommon, however, for tests to be inconclusive. It’s harder for forensic investigators to match small fragments because there may not be enough surface area to examine, researchers say, and some guns, like those with looser fitting barrels, can leave weak, harder-to-see markings. An inconclusive result does not prove a bullet did not come from a certain gun, it just means it’s not a match beyond a doubt.
What People Are Saying
Owens used the news as support for her theory that there is no legitimate evidence against Robinson in a post on X. She also resurfaced her claim that Robinson’s rifle wasn’t found by police bomb dogs at the scene of Kirk’s murder, and said that means the gun was never fired (the dog claim has circulated widely on social media and in podcasts but has not been confirmed by officials). Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green posted to X linking the bullet news to the recent resignation of Nate Brooksby, the sheriff who took the call that later led to Robinson turning himself in, suggesting the two pieces of information were connected.
Key Background
Kirk, a right-wing political activist and founder of Turning Point USA, was shot and killed during a speaking event at Utah Valley University last September. President Donald Trump and other GOP leaders immediately blamed the “radical left” for the attack, and right-leaning media called his death an attack on conservatism. The discourse sparked free speech discussions after high-ranking officials like Vice President JD Vance pressured employers to punish employees who celebrated Kirk’s assassination online. ABC suspended Jimmy Kimmel’s late night show after he spoke about Kirk’s death, suggesting Trump allies were out to exploit the killing for political gain. Kimmel’s suspension, which lasted for one week, followed threats of action from the Federal Communications Commission. Kirk’s wife, Erika Kirk, very publicly stepped into the spotlight following her husband’s death by hosting a heavily produced funeral, assuming leadership of his organization, headlining multiple speaking events and later launching a “Make Heaven Crowded Tour” that will make 30 stops this year. She’s made efforts to tamp down on speculation about her husband’s murder.
Further Reading
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2026/03/31/charlie-kirks-assassination-conspiracy-inconclusive-bullet-fuels-wild-new-theories/
