XRP Price Analysis: Whales Buy 190M Tokens as Technical Indicators Point to Cycle Low

Key Takeaways

• XRP maintains a trading range between $1.32 and $1.35 while technical signals suggest a possible cycle low formation
• Weekly RSI reached extreme oversold territory at 29 on March 2, currently rebounding to 34
• The MACD indicator hit record lows and approaches a bullish crossover pattern that previously signaled major bottoms
• Approximately 500 million XRP tokens were purchased near $1.30, establishing it as a crucial support threshold
• A breakdown below the $1.27–$1.30 range could trigger a decline to $1.15–$1.12, with bearish targets extending to $0.80

After eight months of declining price action, XRP is showing several technical characteristics that have historically coincided with significant market bottoms for the digital asset.

The token is presently exchanging hands in the $1.32 to $1.35 range. Market participants are monitoring whether buying pressure can maintain the critical $1.30 price floor.

On March 2, the weekly Relative Strength Index plummeted to 29, entering deeply oversold conditions. The metric has since climbed to 34. Historical data reveals that previous occurrences of such extreme RSI readings have typically preceded substantial upward price movements for XRP.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has similarly declined to unprecedented depths for the asset. A bullish crossover appears imminent on this indicator—a technical pattern that has previously coincided with long-term price bottoms for XRP.

Past instances when both conditions—an oversold RSI combined with a MACD bullish crossover—aligned simultaneously have resulted in XRP price surges ranging from 74% to 230%. These patterns were observed in 2022 and during the middle of 2024.

Critical Support Zone at $1.30

Market analyst Egrag Crypto characterized the $1.30 region as “a very sensitive level” that determines “the market chooses direction.” According to his analysis, maintaining this zone could enable gradual price appreciation, while failure to hold could result in a retest of $1.15.

Blockchain analytics from Glassnode indicate that approximately 500 million XRP tokens were purchased at the $1.30 price point. This substantial accumulation at a specific cost basis establishes a significant support foundation driven by concentrated buying interest.

Should $1.30 fail to hold, the subsequent support area lies between $1.15 and $1.12, corresponding to the location of the 200-week simple moving average. Breaking through this level would activate the bear flag projection targeting $0.80.

Technical analyst Arthur questioned on X whether the weekly RSI on XRP reaching multi-year lows was “flashing a long-term bottom signal.” Fellow analyst Cryptoinsightuk highlighted that this represents only the second time XRP has entered oversold RSI territory, with the previous occurrence in July 2022—which precisely marked the cyclical low.

XRP/BTC Performance Analysis

The XRP to Bitcoin ratio is also showing signs of stabilization near the lower boundary of an extended consolidation pattern. The previous time XRP established a bottom against BTC at this level occurred in June 2025, which subsequently sparked a 56% increase in the XRP/BTC pair and a 92% surge in XRP’s dollar price to $3.66.

Blockchain metrics indicate increasing whale activity. Data from analyst Ali Charts reveals that large holders accumulated 190 million XRP tokens during the past seven days alone. Additionally, exchange withdrawal activity has remained elevated, a pattern generally associated with longer-term accumulation strategies.

For bulls to validate a trend reversal, XRP must reclaim territory above the $1.61 range resistance level.

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