The global crypto market is starting to stabilize after a sharp sell-off as Bitcoin tries to settle near $70,000. However, positioning across derivatives and macro markets suggests that traders are far from confident about what comes next. The Fear and Greed index shows that investors are still seeing “Fear” in the market.
VanEck’s data depicts that the 30-day average Bitcoin price has fallen about 19%. This comes in despite the recent correction. Beneath that decline, conditions have begun to calm slightly as realized volatility has dropped from 80 to 50. It added that the Futures funding rates have eased from 4.1% to 2.7%.
This setup usually signals that the aggressive positioning has already been flushed out, at least for now. Bitcoin price has dropped by more than 25% over the past 60 days. Ether also tagged along, as it slipped down by 33% in the same period.
Options market screams Caution
Options markets tell a different story. The put/call open interest ratio has climbed to 0.77. This has been the highest level seen since June 2021. VanEck’s data shows that Put premiums relative to spot volume have reached an all-time high of 4 basis points. This hints that the traders are paying up for downside protection. This typically happens when uncertainty is elevated rather than resolved.
On-chain activity is also reflecting a cooling phase. Transfer volume has dropped 31%, while daily fees are down 27%. It added that the long-term holders have slowed their distribution, while miners are mostly selling only newly issued Bitcoin rather than aggressively offloading reserves.
The macro backdrop is shifting quickly, and that’s where the real pressure is building. A few weeks ago, markets were debating how many rate cuts the Federal Reserve might deliver in 2026. However, that conversation has flipped. Traders are expecting the possibility of a rate hike as early as April.
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a hike has jumped to 12%. This is up from effectively zero just a week ago. It turns out to be a sharp reversal from earlier expectations. In this matter, inflation hasn’t helped either. February data showed inflation at 2.4% and core at 2.5%. Both numbers are still above target, and that was before the recent surge in oil prices.
Since the start of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, oil has jumped around 50% in just three weeks. This spike has been feeding directly into inflation expectations. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has already pointed out that the “oil shock” is starting to show up in projections.
Bitcoin still holding strong
Bond markets have reacted fast. The US 10-year yield has climbed to around 4.38%, up from below 4% at the start of March. Similar moves are playing out globally, with U.K. gilt yields pushing above 5% for the first time since 2008.
During all the chaos, assets that initially benefited from the geopolitical shock are giving back gains. Gold, which had surged to around $5,500 earlier this month, has dropped to roughly $4,569. Silver has fallen as well. It slid from $95 to about $69.
Bitcoin remains one of the better-performing assets since the conflict began. Recent ETF activities also suggest a sustained interest. The past month has seen some of the largest trading volumes on record. Four of the highest-volume days occurred within just a few weeks.
Santiment data shows that March 2 recorded $31.6 billion in ETF trading volume. February 23 followed with $23.2 billion. Over $21 billion was posted on both March 18 and March 19. Grayscale reports that despite everything, Bitcoin still dominates the crypto market. BTC accounts for roughly 90% of the total market share.
Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/is-bitcoin-bottoming-volatility-falls-doubt-rises/
