Crypto Analyst Explains Friday’s Bitcoin Drop and Revelas his Next Price Target

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe posted his Bitcoin read on March 15, 2026, arguing that Friday’s price correction was nothing more than traders reducing exposure ahead of the weekend rather than a structural shift in direction.

What Van de Poppe Is Saying

His assessment is direct. The Friday pullback reflected risk-off appetite, the common market behaviour of closing or reducing positions before Saturday and Sunday when liquidity thins and news can move markets without the ability to respond through institutional channels. Nothing else drove it. No structural breakdown, no fundamental change in the setup.

From here, he expects a slight pullback during Saturday’s session related to CME gap closing appetite. A CME gap forms when Bitcoin’s spot price moves significantly during weekend hours when the CME futures market is closed, creating a price gap that the market has a historical tendency to fill when CME trading resumes. Beyond that short-term noise, his base case is a continued grind higher toward the $75,000 to $80,000 resistance zone.

What the Chart Shows

The 6-hour BTC/USDT chart on TradingView covers December 2025 through early April 2026. The left side of the chart shows Bitcoin’s distribution phase from above $100,000, with price grinding lower through multiple resistance points before the sharp decline visible in January and February 2026. The sell-off brought price down to a low near $65,117, labeled on the chart as the higher low support level.

From that low, price has been recovering. Several resistance levels are marked with horizontal lines. The green shaded box between $76,604 and $80,646 represents the immediate target zone van de Poppe is referencing. Above that sits $86,549, then $91,892, and finally $100,739, labeled as the important level that must break to prevent a harsh drop to potentially the lows.

The annotation on the left side of the chart notes that all liquidity sitting above current price is ready to be taken if markets decide to go upward. That liquidity, represented by clustered sell orders and short positions above current price, becomes fuel for the move if buyers push price through the resistance levels in sequence.

The Key Levels to Watch

The $65,117 level is the structural anchor. Van de Poppe’s chart labels it as the higher low support being defended. As long as that level holds, the recovery structure remains intact. A break below it would shift the read from recovery to continuation of the downtrend.

The $75,000 to $80,000 zone is the first meaningful target above. That range aligns with the green shaded accumulation zone on the chart and represents the first area where significant resistance and liquidity clusters sit above current price. Clearing it with conviction would open the path toward $86,549 and eventually the $91,892 level that sits below the critical $100,739 resistance.

The CME gap caveat is the short-term variable. A Saturday pullback to fill that gap would not invalidate the broader recovery thesis. It would represent a standard market mechanic playing out before the next leg higher.

What This Analysis Adds to the Week’s Picture

Van de Poppe’s read is consistent with the broader signals covered throughout this week. The whale ratio at a six-year high, the LTH-SOPR defending $70,000, the exchange supply at its lowest since 2017, and the $867 million in weekly ETF inflows all describe a market with structural support beneath current prices. His technical framework identifies where the upside targets sit above them.

The gap between $71,888 today and $75,000 to $80,000 is approximately 5% to 12%. Whether that gap closes in days or weeks depends on how the macro data and Federal Reserve meeting on March 17 to 18 land.

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