Why September’s U.S. Macro Announcements Could Be Critical for the Crypto Market

Key Insights:

• Treasury bonds warn of recession, but Bitcoin may rise as investors turn to the crypto market.
• Higher U.S. jobless numbers boost chances of rate cuts, a positive sign for the crypto market.
• The September 11 CPI print could be the key crypto news, steering Bitcoin and Ethereum’s next move.

This September, U.S. economic news is very important for the crypto market. Traders are closely watching three big updates: Treasury bond signals, new job numbers, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the main measure of inflation.

Each of these updates could change what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates. And interest rates are key for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the rest of the crypto market.

Let’s look at why this week of crypto news matters so much.

Crypto Market: Treasury Bonds Send a Warning for Recession

The first signal comes from the U.S. Treasury bonds. These are safe loans to the government, and they come in different time lengths. Analysts often compare the 10-year bond to shorter ones like the 2-year or 3-month.

Right now, the 10-year bond is paying more again after months of paying less. This sounds small, but in the past, when this change happened, it usually came before unemployment went up and stock markets like the S&P 500 went down.

In simple words, it has been a warning for recessions. Having said that, the crypto market is also keeping close track of the bonds.

For the crypto market, this matters because when stocks fall, many investors move their money elsewhere. Some go to gold, which is seen as safe.

Others are now treating Bitcoin the same way. If a recession really comes, gold and Bitcoin could both see more demand.

Rising Jobless Numbers Support Fed Rate Cut Talk

The second signal is jobs. In August, U.S. unemployment came in at 4.3%, while the crypto market expected it to come in at 4.2%.

That may look like a small difference, but history shows that once jobless numbers rise, they often keep climbing. That is usually the start of recessions.

A weaker job market puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Rate cuts make it cheaper for people and businesses to borrow money.

When borrowing is cheaper, more money often flows into riskier assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Right now, traders think the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points in September. Some were hoping for a bigger cut, but inflation fears may stop that.

This balance between jobs and inflation is what the crypto market is watching closely.

CPI Print Could Decide the Next Crypto Market Headline

The third signal is inflation. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the main report that tracks how much prices are rising for everyday goods.

When traders say “CPI print,” they mean the official number that gets released each month.

The forecast for September 11 is 2.9% compared to 2.7% in July. If the actual CPI print is higher than 2.9%, it means inflation is still strong.

That could delay rate cuts and hurt Bitcoin and the broader crypto market in the short term. In fact, expert Ted noted that the last three CPI reports that were hotter than expected caused Bitcoin to fall by 9–11%.

However, if the number is lower, the opposite could happen. A cooler CPI print would mean inflation is slowing, giving the Fed more room to cut rates.

That would be good news for the digital assets space, as cheaper money often drives rallies in Bitcoin and altcoins.

At the same time, gold has been climbing as investors prepare for a slowdown. Data shows Bitcoin usually follows gold’s path with about a 200-day delay.

If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could rise toward $167,000–$185,000 in the months ahead. Therefore, all these metrics might, in a way, point towards an upcoming Bitcoin rally.

September’s U.S. macro news could determine the next big move in the crypto market. Treasury bonds are warning of recession, job numbers are rising, and the next CPI print could decide if rate cuts happen soon.

If inflation cools, Bitcoin and Ethereum could rally alongside gold. If inflation stays hot, expect short-term pain.

Either way, this week of crypto news will be critical for traders watching both the stock market and the crypto market.