Bitcoin’s Short-Term Indicator Tests Critical Recovery Level

According to a report shared by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has reclaimed the key 1.0 threshold after briefly dipping into capitulation territory.

Recently, STH SOPR moved below 0.95, a zone historically associated with short-term capitulation. It has now recovered back toward the 1.0 level, placing the market at an important inflection point.

Why 1.0 Matters

The 1.0 level represents the breakeven point for short-term holders. When SOPR holds above 1.0, it signals that coins are being spent at profit. When it trades below 1.0, it indicates that short-term participants are realizing losses.

At this stage, the key question is whether SOPR can maintain sustained positioning above 1.0 for several consecutive days.

If it does, that would suggest selling pressure from recent buyers has been absorbed, increasing the probability of a short-term technical rebound extension.

If it fails to hold above 1.0, the market could return to range-bound behavior or face renewed downside pressure.

Not a Full Capitulation – Yet

Importantly, this recent drop did not reach the intensity seen on August 5, 2024, when SOPR declined closer to the 0.9 region. That prior move reflected significantly deeper loss realization and a more forceful market reset.

Because the current pullback stopped above that deeper capitulation zone, the higher time-frame structure leaves room for further downside before a stronger, more durable bottom can form.

Most Probable Scenario

The base-case scenario suggests a successful reclaim of 1.0 could fuel a short-term rebound. However, from a structural perspective, a more decisive bottom may require a deeper capitulation event closer to the 0.9 region.

For now, sustained stabilization above 1.0 remains the primary confirmation signal for short-term recovery.

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