Bitcoin Stalls in Narrow Range While Open Interest and IV Climb
Glassnode’s latest thread has traders squinting at what looks like a calm price picture on the surface, but a tense, wired options market underneath. The on-chain analytics provider noted Bitcoin’s recent consolidation between roughly $65,000 and $73,000 but added that options metrics tell a different story, one of rebuilding open interest, rising implied volatility and a market that remains defensively positioned.
Spot Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$60,000s on Friday, showing the tug-of-war between buyers who stepped in after a sharp correction and sellers who remain wary of further downside. What makes Glassnode’s read notable is the detail beneath that consolidation. Options open interest, which collapsed after a large December expiry, has been rebuilding and is now approaching the late-Q4 2025 peak, evidence that traders are once again committing capital to structured bets and hedges.
That rebuilding has not been neutral: 1-month and 3-month at-the-money implied volatility has repriced materially higher, roughly a ten-point lift in recent weeks, signalling the market is pricing a greater chance of stronger moves ahead. The skew, a measure of demand for downside protection relative to upside, has widened, moving from low single digits to the high teens in the space of a month.
In plain terms, investors are paying up more for puts, buying convex protection against a sudden drop rather than paying for upside leverage. That flows through to market structure: dealers are reported to have short gamma between approximately $58,000 and $74,000, concentrated near $63,000, meaning their hedging activity can amplify price moves and increase sensitivity to directional breaks, especially on the downside.
Short-term Outlook
There are signs of rebalancing in short-term flows. After heavy put buying immediately following the slide from the $82,000 area, recent sessions have shown a pickup in call activity that has nudged the put/call volume ratio toward roughly 0.7. That suggests near-term positioning is settling, even if the broader structure stays defensive.
But options are not cheap relative to risk. One-month implied volatility has at times been below recent realized moves, indicating that if realized volatility stays elevated, implieds may have to climb further, creating upward pressure on volatility and, by extension, on option premia.
The backdrop for all this is a broader market that remains jittery. Mainstream coverage of the past week’s swings highlighted renewed risk-off pressure across risk assets, while some strategists warned of deeper retracements should macro data disappoint.
For traders, the message is straightforward: beneath an apparently steady price band, positioning is rebuilding in a way that prefers protection and leaves the market vulnerable to shocks. That makes any breakout of the $65k–$73k band potentially more violent, and more likely to be amplified by the very hedging flows currently being put in place.
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