Analysis: The threat of macroeconomic catalysts remains, and caution is advised in judging whether the crypto market has "bottomed out."
PANews reported on February 11th that, according to a QCP Asia market analysis report, cryptocurrencies rebounded as ETF inflows resumed, but the threat of macroeconomic catalysts remains. Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded from last week's lows, boosting market optimism that a short-term bottom may have formed. In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to remain range-bound while awaiting clearer catalysts and confirmation from fund flows. This rebound is primarily driven by a shift in ETF fund flows. According to SoSoValue data, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $145 million yesterday, continuing the trend of a $371 million net inflow last Friday; the spot Ethereum ETF also saw a net inflow of $57 million. Institutional demand is showing signs of recovery, with Tom Lee's BitMine continuing to increase its Ethereum holdings, which helps stabilize market sentiment.
On the macro level, easing tensions between the US and Iran and weaker-than-expected employment data have increased market expectations for a Fed rate cut in March. Market focus has shifted to today's non-farm payroll data and Friday's CPI report, two key indicators that could reshape interest rate expectations and market risk appetite. Although the narrowing Coinbase Bitcoin premium suggests reduced selling pressure in the US spot market, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index remains in the "extreme fear" range of 9, indicating fragile market sentiment. Cross-asset rotation is limited, with the BTC/ETH ratio stabilizing at 33-34, and implied volatility, while declining from its highs, still at a relatively high level. With key macroeconomic events approaching, caution is advised regarding the conclusion that a "bottom has been reached," and hedging strategies should be implemented.
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