Bitcoin Teeters Between CME Gaps and New Macro Lows: Analysis

Bitcoin failed to sustain a move above $69,000 as markets opened the weekend with caution, mirroring a broader hesitancy among traders about chasing new highs amid an uncertain macro backdrop. Fresh downside risk was baked into price action as BTC slipped more than $4,000 from the daily open, signaling that the rebound into the weekend may have been a relief rally rather than a durable trend reversal. Analysts point to resistance just below or at the old 2021 all-time high, around $69,000, which is seen as a formidable barrier. Meanwhile, two CME futures gaps loom on the horizon, offering potential magnets for price if demand accelerates again.

Key points:

• Bitcoin faces a lack of acceptance above $69,000, while traders see new lows to come.

• Analysis says that the rebound into the weekend was nothing more than a “relief rally.”

• Two CME futures gaps provide potential targets for BTC price upside.

BTC price bottom “not in,” analysis warns

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action dropping more than $4,000 versus the daily open. With the old 2021 all-time high increasingly turning to resistance, cautious traders rejected the notion of a quick revival. The immediate takeaway among several market observers was that the weekend rally looked more like a relief bounce than a sustainable bottom formation.

“TLDR: The bottom for BTC is not in. My priority right now is capital preservation,” said Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, in a post on X the day before the latest price action. His warning captured a broader mood among traders who view the market as exposed to further downside risk before any durable upward momentum could reassert itself. A separate blockquote captured his sentiment: “If you’re thinking, ‘We’re so back,’ we’re not. There is literally no evidence of that yet.”

Alan also highlighted the significance of the 2021 peak around $69,000, describing it as an “important” level within what he characterized as an ongoing relief rally. He added that the recent move was “a gift yesterday,” but warned that lower prices may come before a renewed bull-market cycle could take hold.

Zooming out, market analyst Rekt Capital also argued that the most pronounced downside pressure may still be ahead. In a post on X, he likened BTC/USD’s behavior to the late-2022 bear market, suggesting that a recurring historical pattern—where a fourth consecutive cycle echoes a familiar base formation—points to further weakness before a potential bottom is established. “This is the 4th consecutive cycle that this historical tendency has continued. And history suggests there’s more downside to come,” he wrote, underscoring the stubborn risk that BTC could test lower support before a broader recovery materializes.

Bitcoin bulls bet on CME gap fills

Saturday’s retracement, meanwhile, left a new potential “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market. This development has kept a subset of traders focused on classic short-term price magnets, with the market watching two CME gaps that could act as catalysts if prices rally in the near term.

Related: Bitcoin beats FTX, COVID-19 crash with record dive below 200-day trend line

A short-term magnet narrative has re-emerged, centered on a gap near $84,000 and a separate level that could pull prices higher if demand re-emerges. Traders argued that such gaps often attract price action as liquidity cycles through the market, even if the longer-term trend remains uncertain. The chatter around CME gaps aligns with a broader view that a relief rally could redraw price trajectories in the near term, though it is not a guarantee of a lasting bounce.

In parallel, traders like Michaël van de Poppe, a veteran analyst and founder of various crypto ventures, voiced a more constructive near-term view. He forecast a continuation pattern where a correction gives way to a move toward the CME gap and beyond, suggesting that the next week could carry BTC toward the $75,000-and-higher zone if momentum reasserts. “Today: correction day. Tomorrow: back up again towards the CME gap. Next week: continuation to $75k+,” he wrote in a post on X, signaling that the possibility of a rebound is not dismissed by some observers.

Notably, Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin-adoption firm JAN3, framed the event as a test of whether large-scale corporate buyers will step in to buy BTC at the new price levels. He described the higher CME gap as one of two questions every financial analyst should be asking: whether institutional demand can absorb the selling pressure given the 15-month low in BTC prices, and whether corporate treasury activity will pick up as prices drift lower. “I believe the answers are not for long and very soon,” he concluded in a post on X, signaling that the near term could reveal significant shifts in demand just as price action wobbles around key levels.