Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Can Silver Extend Its 5% Rebound Amid Wyckoff Accumulation and Geopolitical Tensions?
The rebound reflects a combination of institutional buying, safe-haven demand, and structural industrial support. Traders monitoring the 4-hour and daily charts are observing higher lows near key support levels, suggesting short-term consolidation and potential continuation.
Technical Rebound Driven by Wyckoff Accumulation
On the 4-hour chart, silver held the $71.21 support zone for three consecutive sessions, accompanied by increasing accumulation volume and improving Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum. These are classic confirmation signals of a Wyckoff Model 2 spring, indicating institutional participation ahead of a potential markup phase.
Silver was traded cleanly through a planned Wyckoff Model 2 accumulation, with scaled entries and a timely exit as distribution signals appeared. Source: CJ via X
Historically, Wyckoff accumulation patterns signal low-risk entry zones for informed traders, combining support retests with controlled volume spikes. CJ (@Sol_CJ888) highlighted a trade near $30.50, scaled across two entries, and exited around $32 with a 2.5:1 risk-reward ratio, illustrating the practical application of this methodology.
Volume analysis also shows institutional ETF flows increasing modestly over the past week. According to CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) data, net long positions in silver futures have risen 3% week-over-week, supporting the view of accumulation rather than retail speculation.
Silver’s Price Structure and Short-Term Outlook
Silver is trading within a well-defined ascending corrective channel on the daily chart. Higher lows formed above $71.21, while the $100–$102 zone aligns with prior 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, representing a historically significant supply area where institutional sellers previously defended positions.
- Key pivot point: $79.00 – holding above this level suggests continuation of the recovery trend.
- Upside targets: $92.50, $95.90, and $101.20, conditional on sustained daily closes with supportive volume.
- Downside risk: A break below $79.00, confirmed by increasing selling volume, may push silver toward $74.70 or $71.30.
Silver is rebounding within a corrective channel but remains capped below key resistance, signaling no confirmed bullish trend. Source: Jaddenn onTradingView
Historical rallies in silver have often stalled near the $101 level due to concentrated institutional supply, making this zone a key short-term test for both bullish and bearish participants, particularly as industrial demand continues to expand.
Geopolitical Tensions Boost Silver as a Safe Haven
Short-term market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical developments. The US Navy’s interception of an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea caused a temporary spike in safe-haven demand, particularly for precious metals.
Silver rebounded over 5% on February 4, 2026, supported by institutional buying, safe-haven demand, and solar-sector strength, with upside holding above $79. Source: EvarMayi on TradingView
While the geopolitical catalyst is likely transient, silver’s response illustrates its dual role as a safe-haven asset and industrial commodity. Analysts at World Silver Survey 2026 note that safe-haven demand typically accounts for 10–15% of total silver traded during periods of heightened geopolitical tension.
Macro Context: Silver and Industrial Demand Amid a Green Energy Transition
Silver’s long-term outlook is increasingly anchored by structural industrial demand rather than speculative flows alone. Key drivers include:
- Solar panel demand: Silver’s conductivity and reflectivity make it essential in photovoltaic cells. Global capacity is projected to reach record highs in 2026, supporting approximately 1,100 metric tons of annual silver consumption.
- EV and electronics demand: Batteries and circuitry in electric vehicles and electronics consume over 500 metric tons of silver annually, providing consistent industrial demand.
This industrial backbone differentiates silver from purely speculative assets and adds resilience to price movements. Combined with ETF flows—iShares Silver Trust (SLV) holdings up 2% month-over-month—these structural drivers support medium-term stability and moderate upside potential.
Broader Market Sentiment and Confirmation Signals
Despite the rebound, silver remains under pressure relative to gold, with elevated real yields and slowing global growth weighing on speculative positioning. Recent selloffs erased prior demand zones, concentrating liquidity at lower levels. Key downside magnets include $70.30, $64.40, and $60.60 if risk sentiment deteriorates.
Confirmation guidance for traders:
- Bullish trend confirmation: A sustained daily close above $87 with increasing accumulation volume would indicate a potential trend reversal.
- Bearish continuation: A break below $79, confirmed by rising selling volume, would suggest renewed corrective pressure and a retest of support zones.
Silver remains in an impulsive markdown, with weak consolidation near $75–$77 and selling pressure expected around the $84–$87 supply zone unless price reclaims $87. Source: BlackGoldMarket on TradingView
By combining technical indicators, volume analysis, institutional positioning, and industrial demand, this framework offers a structured, evidence-based approach to silver price forecasting rather than relying on anecdotal commentary.
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