Strategy (MSTR) Stock: What to Expect from Earnings Thursday

TLDR

• Strategy (MSTR) announces Q4 2025 results February 5 after close with expected revenue of $119.12 million and $0.08 per share loss
• Company purchased 855 Bitcoin for $75.3 million on February 2, increasing total holdings to 713,502 BTC at average cost of $76,052
• Bitcoin crash below $73,000 pushes Strategy’s entire holdings underwater for first time as stock falls 60% over past year
• Analysts maintain Strong Buy rating with $437 average price target representing 228% upside potential
• Options market prices 8.32% post-earnings move as crypto volatility raises concerns about company’s Bitcoin-focused strategy

Strategy faces a critical earnings report on Thursday, February 5, after market close. The Bitcoin treasury company reports Q4 2025 results as its cryptocurrency holdings fall below water.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

Wall Street expects revenue of $119.12 million, up 1.3% from last year. Analysts forecast a loss of $0.08 per share versus a $3.03 loss in the year-ago period.

The company has a rough earnings history. It missed estimates in six of the last nine quarters.

MSTR stock has crashed over 60% in the past year. Shares trade at $129.03, down 7% in the last 24 hours. Year-to-date losses stand at 12%.

Bitcoin Crash Creates New Problem

Strategy bought 855 Bitcoin on February 2 for approximately $75.3 million. The purchase price averaged $87,974 per coin.

Total holdings now reach 713,502 Bitcoin. The company’s average cost basis across all purchases sits at $76,052 per coin.

Bitcoin fell below $73,000 on February 3, its worst drop since November 2024. The cryptocurrency traded around $74,674 at press time.

This puts Strategy’s entire Bitcoin stack underwater. It’s the first time holdings are valued below the average purchase price.

The crypto market saw brutal liquidations. Over $660 million in positions were wiped out within 24 hours. Bitcoin led with $112.7 million in liquidations.

More than 161,000 traders faced liquidations during the crash. None of Strategy’s Bitcoin is pledged as collateral, so there’s no forced selling risk.

Analyst Ratings Stay Strong

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal initiated coverage with an Overweight rating. His price target sits at $213 per share.

El-Assal praised the company’s Bitcoin-focused approach. He believes the capital-raising strategy for Bitcoin exposure works well.

The analyst said Bitcoin price swings don’t threaten the balance sheet. He expects growing institutional Bitcoin adoption to help long-term strategy.

Risks remain from price volatility, regulatory changes, and potential dilution. These factors could hurt performance going forward.

Strategy uses market Net Asset Value (mNAV) to measure its premium over Bitcoin holdings. When Bitcoin hit records, mNAV stayed well above 1.

This premium attracted traders who found MSTR shares more profitable than buying Bitcoin directly. But as Bitcoin crashed from October, mNAV dropped toward 1.

MSCI considered excluding companies with over 50% crypto exposure from its indices. On January 6, MSCI delayed the decision pending more research.

Wall Street Expects Big Move

Among 11 analysts covering the stock, nine rate it a Buy and two rate it a Hold. The consensus Strong Buy rating comes with an average price target of $437.11.

That target implies 228% upside from current levels. Options traders expect an 8.32% move after earnings.

Strategy bought 855 Bitcoin for $75.3 million on February 2 at $87,974 per coin, bringing total holdings to 713,502 BTC now valued below the company’s average purchase price of $76,052.

The post Strategy (MSTR) Stock: What to Expect from Earnings Thursday appeared first on Blockonomi.