TON Technical Analysis Feb 4

TON is positioned at a critical equilibrium point at the $1.39 level; although the short-term downtrend dominates, oversold conditions in RSI make the bullish scenario possible, while Bitcoin’s weak performance increases downside risk. Breakout potential is high in both directions, traders need to closely monitor trigger levels.

Current Market Situation

TON is currently trading at the $1.39 level and has recorded a slight 1.01% increase in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend continues downward. The price is stuck in a range between $1.34 – $1.43, with volume at moderate levels of $76.79M. Technical indicators show RSI at 34.83, approaching oversold territory, which could signal a short-term recovery. However, MACD shows a bearish histogram, and with price remaining below EMA20 ($1.50), short-term bearish bias prevails. The Supertrend indicator also gives a bearish signal and draws a resistance line around $1.63.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 14 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/0 resistances on 3D, 3 supports/4 resistances on 1W. Key supports are $1.2500 (score 71/100) and $1.3768 (70/100), while resistances stand out at $1.4292 (64/100), $1.4880 (64/100), and $1.9372 (64/100). This structure indicates that the price is consolidating in a narrow range and at a breakout point where increased volatility is expected. Traders should determine direction by monitoring volume increases and candlestick patterns.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break above the $1.4292 resistance is required first; a close above this level with increasing volume could test EMA20 ($1.50). RSI recovering toward the 50 level and MACD histogram crossing above the zero line will confirm bullish momentum. Supertrend turning green could provide additional confirmation. In the bigger picture, holding the 3 support levels on the weekly chart and improving overall market sentiment (e.g., BTC recovery) could accelerate price toward $1.4880. This scenario could gain speed with a short squeeze triggered by oversold RSI; traders should watch for bullish engulfing candles or high-volume green candles. Post-breakout retracements holding above $1.3768 support will be a critical invalidation criterion – a drop below this level invalidates the scenario.

Target Levels

First target $1.4880 (previous swing high), followed by Fibonacci extension levels extending to $1.9372 with $1.8079 as the main bullish target (score 44/100). Under more optimistic conditions, testing 1W resistances could challenge the $2.00 psychological barrier. The risk/reward ratio looks attractive at around 1:3 from a $1.39 entry, but stop-loss should be placed below $1.3768. These levels are MTF aligned and carry reversal potential from past resistances.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a break below $1.3768 support; a close below this level with volume increase accelerates distance from EMA20 downward. Deeper negative MACD histogram and RSI dropping below 30 reinforce momentum. With Supertrend remaining bearish, BTC testing $75,482 support increases selling pressure in altcoins. Short-term risk factors include overall market fear (fear index rise) and rejection of low-volume upward moves. Traders should carefully track bearish pinbar or shooting star candles, as well as intraday breakdowns below $1.34. Invalidation of this scenario occurs with a strong close above $1.4292 resistance – passing this level weakens bearish bias.

Protection Levels

First protection at $1.2500 (score 71/100), post-breakout main bearish target $0.9475 (score 22/100). Deeper declines could signal drops below $1.00 via 3D and 1W supports. Risk/reward ratio around 1:2.5 for short positions, stop-loss should be placed above $1.4292. These levels are strong MTF supports and can function as bounce points from past lows.

Which Scenario to Watch?

The decision point lies in the $1.3768-$1.4292 range; upside breakout activates bullish scenario, downside breakout activates bearish. For confirmation, monitor 4H closes, volume spikes, and RSI/MACD divergences. If BTC dominance rises, bearish trend strengthens; conversely, altcoin rotation becomes bullish. Short-term traders should not ignore breakout traps (fakeouts) on 15M-1H charts; long-term holders should prioritize weekly levels.

Bitcoin Correlation

TON shows high correlation with BTC (usually 0.8+); BTC is in a downtrend at $76,466 with a 3.16% decline and weak performance. BTC breaking $75,482 support could accelerate TON testing $1.25, while a drop below $72,934 triggers sub-$1.00 bearish targets. Conversely, BTC surpassing $77,797 resistance strengthens TON’s bullish scenario and opens doors to $1.80s. With BTC Supertrend bearish, a cautious approach is essential for altcoins; follow detailed correlation data from TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis pages.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

TON’s current consolidation offers opportunities for both scenarios; traders should manage risks by positioning according to breakout direction. Monitoring notes: $1.4292/$1.3768 breakouts, RSI 50 crossover, MACD zero line, and BTC $77K/$75K levels. Moves without volume increase remain weak – always do your own analysis and check TON spot and futures pages. The market is dynamic, don’t miss regular updates.