EUR/USD bounces up from lows with all eyes on Eurozone HICP figures

The Euro (EUR) is trading moderately higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The pair reaches levels right above 1.1830 at the time of writing, from weekly lows near 1.1775, with investors awaiting the release of the Eurozone HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and January’s preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), before taking directional bets.

Consumer prices in the Euro area are expected to remain steady below the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) 2% target rate, which would pave the path for the bank to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, as it is widely expected. There is, however, the risk of a cooler-than-expected inflation, which might feed speculation about further rate cuts, sending the EUR lower.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains steady. US President Trump has signed a bill into law that ends a two-day government shutdown, easing markets, which are still celebrating the pick of Kevin Warsh as the replacement for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Warsh is a respected policymaker who is expected to be cautious with rate cuts and guarantee the central bank’s autonomy.

In the economic calendar, before the Eurozone inflation figures, the final Services PMI data will show the health of the sector and could impact Euro crosses. In the US, investors will analyze with particular interest the ADP Employment Change report, as the key Nonfarm Payrolls report will be delayed due to the recent government shutdown.

Daily Digest market Movers: The Euro is going through a frail recovery

• The Euro has bounced up from lows but remains miles away from last week’s highs, with investors awaiting Eurozone inflation figures for further insight into the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy.
• January’s preliminary HICP data is expected to show that price pressures eased further, to a 1.7% year-on-year growth, from 1.9% in December and 2.1% in November. The core HICP, more relevant from the monetary policy perspective, is seen growing steadily at a 2.3% yearly pace.
• At the same time, Eurozone Producer Price Index is expected to show higher deflationary pressures, featuring a 2.3% year-on-year contraction in December, following a 1.7% decline in November, and providing further evidence that a strong Euro is pushing inflation lower.
• Before that, the final Eurozone HCOB Services PMI is expected to confirm that the sector’s activity slowed down to 51.9 in January, its worst performance in the last four months, from 52.4 in December.
• In the US, the focus will be on January’s ADP private payrolls report, which will be the main employment data this week. Net job creation is expected to have increased to 48K last month from 41K in December, still at relatively low levels.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD must break above 1.1875 to confirm a trend shift

EUR/USD shows a moderate recovery from Monday’s lows at 1.1775, with indicators on the 4-hour chart highlighting a fading bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line seems about to cross above the signal line, in what would be a bullish move, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached levels right below the 50 line, which divides the bearish from the bullish area.

Price action, however, remains trapped within Monday’s trading range. Bulls would need to break the weekly top at the 1.1875 area to confirm the pair’s recovery and aim for the resistance area between the January 29 high, at 1.1995, and the 1.2000 psychological level.

Immediate support is at the February 2 and 3 lows, in the mentioned 1.1775 area. Further down, bears might be attracted by the January 21 low, near 1.1660.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)