LDO Technical Analysis Feb 3

LDO is approaching a strong support zone at $0.41 with an oversold RSI (26.55), seeking a bottom; this situation enables both a strong rebound (rise) and continuation of the downtrend scenarios.

Current Market Situation

LDO is trading at $0.41 with a 2.84% drop in the last 24 hours and is stuck in the $0.39-$0.43 range. Volume remains at a moderate $43.23M level, while the overall trend continues downward. RSI at 26.55 signals the oversold region, indicating short-term reaction buy potential, but MACD’s negative histogram maintains bearish momentum. Price is trading below EMA20 ($0.50), and the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, with resistance positioned at $0.52. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 11 critical levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/3 resistances on 1D, 1 support/0 resistance on 3D, and 2 supports/4 resistances balance on 1W. Main support at $0.3839 (score 80/100), resistances at $0.4255 (61/100), $0.4575 (64/100), and $0.7541 (60/100). This structure offers traders both breakout and breakdown opportunities; oversold conditions support a rebound, while BTC’s downtrend creates pressure.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break and close above the $0.4255 resistance is required first; this level could reverse short-term momentum. If momentum builds toward $0.4575 afterward, positive divergence on RSI (RSI forming a higher low while price makes a new low) and volume increase would confirm it. MACD histogram approaching the zero line and not falling back below EMA20 ($0.50) would strengthen the scenario. With Supertrend turning bullish, the bearish pressure on the 1D chart breaks, and 3D/1W supports in MTF come into play. Stabilization of BTC above $72,946 could trigger an altcoin rally. In this scenario, invalidation occurs with the loss of $0.3839 support – this break would completely invalidate the rise.

Target Levels

First target $0.50 (EMA20), then $0.6127 (score 30/100) as the main bullish target. In stronger momentum, $0.7541 resistance can be tested. These levels align with Fibonacci extensions and past resistances; reaching $0.6127 lifts the current risk/reward ratio (R/R) above 1:2. Traders can consider long positions on the $0.4255 breakout but should place stop-loss below $0.39.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a close below $0.3839 support; if this level (score 80/100) breaks, panic selling accelerates and MACD bearish momentum strengthens. If RSI fails to rebound from oversold (e.g., drops below 20), Supertrend bearish signal continues. BTC sliding toward $72,946-$69,326 supports intensifies correlated downside in altcoins like LDO. Rejection at $0.4255 without volume increase creates short-term short opportunities. In MTF, 4 resistances on the 1W timeframe support the long-term downtrend. Invalidation of this scenario occurs with a strong close above $0.4575 – this negates the downside and turns bullish.

Protection Levels

First protection level below $0.3839 to the $0.35 zone, main bearish target at $0.1359 (score 22/100). This target aligns with 1W support breaks and Fibonacci retracements. For short positions, stop-loss above $0.4575 is recommended; current R/R offers potential near 1:3. Traders should monitor BTC dominance increase and volume-less rebounds as risk factors.

Which Scenario to Watch?

The decision point lies between $0.4255 resistance and $0.3839 support: a volume-backed close above $0.4255 triggers bullish, below it bearish. Confirmation signals include RSI divergence, MACD crossover, and volume profile. Daily candle closes are critical; for example, doji or hammer candles signal rebound, shooting star strengthens downside. Follow leverage effects from LDO Spot Analysis and LDO Futures Analysis pages. Volatility is high in both scenarios, so risk management should be prioritized.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $75,023 with a 4.27% drop in downtrend; Supertrend bearish signal creates caution for altcoins. LDO shows high correlation with BTC – if BTC loses $72,946 support, LDO’s $0.3839 break accelerates; if BTC breaks $75,567 resistance, LDO rebound is supported. BTC supports at $72,946, $69,326, and $61,126; resistances at $75,567, $78,048, $85,342 should be monitored. BTC dominance increase pressures LDO, while altseason signals (BTC stabilization) trigger upside.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

LDO at a critical juncture: Oversold conditions offer rebound hope, but bearish technicals dominate. Monitoring points: $0.4255 (bull trigger), $0.3839 (bear trigger), RSI above/below 30, and BTC $72,946. Traders should be prepared for both scenarios, size positions according to R/R. Follow market news (Lido DAO updates); be patient in high volatility. This analysis aims to help develop your own decisions – always do your own research.