TLDR:
- AVAX rallies look like traps as sellers reload near $11.5, keeping downside liquidity firmly in focus.
- Institutional RWA growth hits records, but price action screams distribution, not accumulation.
- ETF inflows add credibility, yet remain too small to counter a confirmed bearish structure.
- Below $11.28, AVAX enters “prove-it mode” with $8.52 acting as the next liquidity magnet.
Avalanche (AVAX) is trapped between bullish institutional headlines and a decisively bearish chart structure. While real-world asset tokenization and ETF inflows strengthen long-term fundamentals, price action tells a different story.
Smart-money traders see rallies as opportunities to sell, with liquidity targets pointing toward lower levels unless key resistance is reclaimed.
Smart-Money Structure Keeps Bears in Control
From a technical perspective, AVAX remains bearish by structure first and narrative second. On the higher time frame, the token continues to print lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers retain market control.
Every bullish push has been corrective rather than impulsive. This is reinforcing the idea that upside moves are engineered retracements instead of genuine demand-driven rallies.
Price recently retraced into the $11.5–$12 premium zone, which aligns with a daily mitigation block formed during prior distribution. In smart-money theory, such zones represent areas where institutional sell orders remain unfilled.
When price revisits them, it often signals reloading rather than accumulation. The subsequent rejection—marked by overlapping candles and weak follow-through—suggests that buyers were trapped after a liquidity sweep, only for sellers to regain dominance.
Crucially, AVAX lost the 11.18–11.28 equilibrium range, a zone that previously acted as a balance point between buyers and sellers. Acceptance below this band confirms a support-to-resistance flip.
As long as the price remains beneath this level, downside scenarios remain favored. Internal liquidity rests near $10.60 and $9.50, while external sell-side liquidity around $8.52 stands out as the primary magnet if bearish momentum persists.
Institutional Adoption Collides With Price Reality
Fundamentals present a sharp contrast. Avalanche’s real-world asset (RWA) TVL surged to $1.3 billion in Q4 2025. It was mainly driven by BlackRock’s $500 million BUIDL fund and FIS partnerships tokenizing billions in loans for U.S. banks.
S&P Dow Jones’ tokenized index launch further validates Avalanche’s subnet infrastructure for compliant finance.
In parallel, VanEck’s spot AVAX ETF has accumulated $3.73 million in assets, expanding access for traditional investors. Network metrics also point to rising engagement as addresses and stablecoin volumes are climbing steadily.
Yet AVAX price continues to lag, near multi-year support, down roughly 80% from its 2024 high. This disconnect highlights persistent skepticism over whether on-chain growth can translate into sustained token demand.
Macro liquidity conditions and elevated USDT dominance are strengthening Avalanche’s ecosystem growth long-term narrative. However, the chart remains the final judge with $9.72–$10.01 as a key reaction zone and $8.52 as a deeper liquidity target.
Until structure flips bullish, smart-money traders remain aligned with the downside despite institutional optimism.
The post Avalanche Faces Bearish Setup Below $10 Despite ETF and RWA Adoption Boom appeared first on Blockonomi.
Source: https://blockonomi.com/avalanche-faces-bearish-setup-below-10-despite-etf-and-rwa-adoption-boom/
