On January 30th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that interest rates currently stand at 3.50%-3.75%; however, he believes monetary policy should shift toward a more neutral stance—likely around 3.00%. Despite the economy appearing robust, the job market is genuinely struggling. Waller anticipates that last year's employment figures will be revised downward, revealing almost no job growth as we move into 2025. Moreover, he's learned that multiple companies are planning layoffs for 2026, which makes him quite skeptical about future job growth and concerned that employment could deteriorate rapidly. Regarding inflation, Waller observed that inflation excluding tariff effects is nearly at the Fed's 2.00% target and should reach that threshold soon. While tariffs have temporarily elevated inflation, he argues the Fed should overlook these short-term fluctuations since inflation expectations remain stable. Notably, Waller voted against this week's 25 basis point rate cut, contending that current policy continues to excessively restrain economic activity.
PANews reported on January 30th that, according to Jinshi News, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the current interest rate range is 3.50%-3.75%, and monetary policy should be closer to a neutral level, which he believes is likely around 3%. Despite robust economic growth, the labor market remains weak. Waller expects last year's weak employment data to be revised downwards, reflecting near-zero job growth in 2025. He stated that he has heard of several companies planning layoffs in 2026, and therefore is quite skeptical of job growth, warning of a significant risk of a sharp deterioration in employment. Regarding inflation, Waller pointed out that the inflation rate excluding tariffs is close to the Fed's 2% target and is expected to reach that level. Although inflation has risen due to tariffs, he believes that given that inflation expectations have stabilized, monetary policy should ignore these temporary effects. Waller voted against a 25 basis point rate cut at this week's meeting, arguing that current policy is still excessively suppressing economic activity.
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