Use this as a starting point to reproduce the arithmetic and to compare live charts. The goal is to make the supply calculation transparent and easy to check, not to predict price or investment outcomes.
Using the protocol issuance math and the post-halving reward, a reasonable projection for circulating supply on 2025-12-31 is about 19,966,500 BTC, which implies roughly 1,033,500 BTC remain unmined by the protocol schedule; verify the snapshot on a live supply chart like the Blockchain.com total bitcoins chart for a current view https://www.blockchain.com/charts/total-bitcoins
This one-line estimate excludes any adjustment for permanently lost or unspendable coins and assumes standard block timing and unchanged protocol rules. For clarity, the projection uses the reward set after the April 2024 halving and a common average for blocks per day.
The headline estimate is protocol-derived and counts coins that the software treats as mined and spendable at the protocol level. It does not subtract coins that are likely permanently lost, such as keys destroyed or wallets abandoned, and it does not include economic measures like liquidity or free float.
Readers looking at live dashboards should treat the number as a technical supply snapshot rather than a statement about usable or circulating liquidity, and then compare that snapshot across multiple trackers to account for timing differences.
Bitcoin’s monetary rules put a hard cap of 21,000,000 BTC into the protocol code and define new issuance through a block subsidy that decreases over time under a halving schedule described in the canonical protocol document, known as the Bitcoin whitepaper
In practical terms, miners receive a fixed reward per block that is cut in half after each 210,000 blocks. That mechanism is what makes long term issuance predictable and why supply projections can be calculated from block rewards and elapsed blocks.
A halving reduces new issuance by half at the protocol level, slowing the creation of new BTC over time and stretching issuance toward the 21 million cap. The halving schedule is deterministic, which means supply additions follow an arithmetic pattern that anyone can reproduce from block counts and reward values.
Understanding halving is the core of any supply estimate, because future supply growth is driven directly by the current per-block reward and the number of blocks that are mined in the period you are measuring.
The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024 and reduced the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block, which is the reward that governs new issuance through the rest of 2025 unless the protocol is changed; for context see a clear explainer of that event https://www.coindesk.com/learn/what-is-bitcoin-halving/
reproduce the block-based issuance math
Change Days to match your date range
At the halving block the cumulative protocol-calculated supply was about 19,687,500 BTC, so the year-to-year additions after that point start from that baseline. The halving both lowered immediate issuance and set a stable arithmetic input for subsequent estimates.
With a per-block reward of 3.125 BTC, the arithmetic for new coins added over any date range becomes straightforward: multiply the average blocks mined in that period by 3.125. The main practical uncertainty is how many blocks appear in the chosen interval, since average block time can vary slightly.
Because the reward change is encoded in the protocol and observable on-chain, it gives anyone a reproducible starting point for supply math and near-real-time verification on tracking sites.
Inputs for the protocol-based estimate are simple: the starting cumulative supply at the 2024 halving, the post-halving reward of 3.125 BTC per block, and an assumption for blocks per day, commonly approximated as 144 because the target block interval is 10 minutes; these inputs drive the arithmetic and can be checked against on-chain charts https://www.blockchain.com/charts/total-bitcoins
We also choose a date range, from the halving date in April 2024 to 2025-12-31, and accept that block time variability and leap seconds do not materially change the basic arithmetic for a high-level projection.
Use these steps to reproduce the projection: first, take the starting cumulative supply at the halving; second, estimate the number of days in your date range and multiply by your blocks-per-day assumption; third, multiply the resulting block count by 3.125 BTC; fourth, add that number to the starting supply to get the projected year-end total.
Applied with a commonly used average of 144 blocks per day and the post-halving reward, the calculation yields roughly 279,000 BTC added between April 2024 and 2025-12-31, which is the main incremental figure behind the year-end projection
Putting the steps together gives a projected circulating supply around 19,966,500 BTC on 2025-12-31, and that implies about 1,033,500 BTC remain unmined under the protocol cap of 21,000,000 BTC; you can cross-check live totals on market pages like CoinMarketCap’s BTC page https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
Check the projection on primary supply charts to confirm timestamps and any small timing differences.
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That projection follows the protocol schedule and does not attempt to measure lost or unspendable coins. The confidence in the arithmetic is moderate for the incremental addition and high for the protocol rules that determine issuance.
The remaining unmined supply is simply 21,000,000 minus the protocol-calculated cumulative total at the chosen date. Using the projected 19,966,500 BTC for 2025-12-31 gives the 1,033,500 BTC figure as the protocol-defined remainder before the final coins are mined in future epochs.
Remember that this is a mathematical remainder based on the encoded issuance schedule, and it may differ from estimates of usable supply when some coins are likely lost or permanently inaccessible.
Supply numbers can differ between trackers because they take snapshots at different times, and block mining is continuous; if you check one site at a timestamp and another a minute later they may show slightly different totals based on the latest mined blocks, so always confirm the timestamp on the chart you view https://www.blockchain.com/charts/total-bitcoins
Some sites also report slightly different totals for reasons such as how they count pre-mined or special-case outputs, and these methodological choices can create minor and explainable discrepancies across providers.
On-chain providers and market aggregators have different update cadences and inclusion rules. For example, one chart may show a near-real-time issuance line while another publishes an hourly aggregated snapshot, and analytics platforms can apply further filters or corrections to address known anomalies Glassnode supply metrics
Because each provider documents methodology differently, checking two or three primary sources helps you understand whether differences are timing noise or arise from deeper counting rules.
The protocol-derived circulating supply does not subtract coins that may be permanently lost or inaccessible, which means effective usable supply can be lower than the raw mined total; research reports often try to estimate lost coin quantities but those are inherently uncertain.
Estimates of lost coins vary by methodology and are not part of the protocol supply calculation, so treat any subtraction for lost coins as an additional, model-based adjustment rather than a protocol fact.
Using the protocol issuance schedule and the post-2024 halving reward, the projected protocol-calculated circulating supply on 2025-12-31 is about 19,966,500 BTC, leaving about 1,033,500 BTC unmined; this does not account for permanently lost coins.
This projection assumes no change to Bitcoin’s issuance rules and relies on average block timing. While a protocol-level change to issuance would be a fundamental event and is highly unlikely, note that any large change would be explicit and widely documented in primary protocol sources Bitcoin whitepaper
For most readers, the reasonable approach is to use the protocol projection for a technical supply snapshot and then consider separate estimates for lost coins or economic circulating supply when needed.
Open the Blockchain.com total bitcoins chart for a canonical on-chain supply curve, the CoinMarketCap BTC page for an exchange-facing circulating supply figure, and analytics pages such as Glassnode Studio or CoinMetrics for deeper issuance and supply metrics https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, and see related coverage on FinancePolice FinancePolice bitcoin analysis
Those pages give slightly different views: use Blockchain.com for a simple cumulative mined chart, use CoinMarketCap for the commonly cited circulating number, and use analytics platforms for supply breakdowns and historic issuance details.
1) Check the timestamp on each chart to confirm when the snapshot was taken. 2) Compare two or three primary sources to see whether differences are timing or methodology. 3) Note any provider methodology statements for inclusion or exclusion rules and adjust your interpretation accordingly https://www.blockchain.com/charts/total-bitcoins
Following these three steps will usually explain small differences and give you a defensible view of the protocol-calculated supply on a chosen date.
A common error is treating the protocol-calculated mined total as identical to usable supply, which ignores the possibility of permanently lost coins and other reductions to effective circulating supply.
Another mistake is relying on a single data provider without checking timestamps and methodology, which can lead to misreading small but material differences when comparing snapshots across sources.
Stale snapshots are misleading when you need a near-real-time figure. If you need a current view, prefer live charts and confirm that the data feed updates frequently rather than depending on an archived or infrequently refreshed page CoinMetrics data overview
Always treat a single number as a starting point, then verify with at least one other primary source before drawing conclusions for research or reporting.
A saver looking for context can use the projected supply number to understand the broad, long-term issuance picture: by the end of 2025 the protocol schedule had produced nearly 20 million BTC, which frames scarcity discussion but does not imply any price or liquidity outcome.
Use the projection as part of background research, and combine it with other factors like adoption, exchange liquidity, and personal risk tolerance when forming an overall view.
A researcher can cite the protocol rules and a live supply chart as primary sources when presenting a 2025 snapshot, and should note any assumptions about lost coins or block time used when reproducing the arithmetic.
For academic or reporting work, include both the protocol reference and the tracking pages you used so readers can reproduce the same snapshot and understand any methodological choices you made.
Inputs used in this worked example are the starting cumulative supply at the 2024 halving (about 19,687,500 BTC), the post-halving reward of 3.125 BTC, and an average of 144 blocks per day. Multiply days in the date range by 144 to get an estimated block count, then multiply by 3.125 and add to the starting supply to get the year-end projection https://www.coindesk.com/learn/what-is-bitcoin-halving/
Using these inputs and a commonly used day count for the period from the April 2024 halving to 2025-12-31 yields roughly 279,000 BTC added, which is the same incremental figure used earlier to reach the 19,966,500 BTC projection.
If you believe block propagation was slightly faster or slower in your date range, change the blocks-per-day input and rerun the arithmetic. For example, moving from 144 to 145 blocks per day increases added supply by about 3.125 BTC per extra block times the number of days.
Small changes in the block-per-day assumption produce modest differences in the final projection, which is why most readers see only minor variation between reasonable assumptions and the live tracker snapshots.
For canonical protocol rules and halving logic, consult the original Bitcoin whitepaper and the protocol documentation, which explain the fixed cap and halving schedule that underlie all issuance math Bitcoin whitepaper
Primary on-chain charts and the analytics providers mentioned earlier are where you can verify snapshots and download data for independent checks.
Trusted pages to bookmark include Blockchain.com’s total bitcoins chart, the CoinMarketCap Bitcoin page, Glassnode Studio for supply metrics, and CoinMetrics for issuance and data exports, each of which provides slightly different but complementary views https://financepolice.com/category/crypto/
Use the providers’ methodology notes to understand exactly what each number represents before quoting a figure for publication or research.
Protocol-based math gives a projected circulating supply for 2025-12-31 of roughly 19,966,500 BTC, leaving about 1,033,500 BTC unmined under the 21,000,000 BTC cap, but this figure does not adjust for permanently lost coins or other economic considerations https://www.blockchain.com/charts/total-bitcoins
That projection depends on the post-halving reward and an average block rate, and it should be treated as a technical snapshot that you can verify with primary charts.
Three simple next steps: reproduce the arithmetic using the inputs shown earlier, open two or three primary tracking pages to compare timestamps and methodology, and bookmark the canonical sources if you plan to revisit supply questions later.
Use FinancePolice as an educational starting point for understanding the calculations and then confirm any figure you plan to cite with the primary sources listed in this article.
It was calculated by taking the protocol-calculated supply at the April 2024 halving, adding new issuance estimated from 3.125 BTC per block times an assumed average of 144 blocks per day through 2025-12-31, and then summing those figures.
No. The projection uses protocol issuance only and does not subtract estimates of permanently lost or unspendable coins, which would reduce effective usable supply.
Check primary on-chain and market trackers such as Blockchain.com, CoinMarketCap, Glassnode, and CoinMetrics and confirm the chart timestamps and methodology notes before relying on a snapshot.
FinancePolice aims to explain the calculation and direct you to primary sources so you can verify any figure independently.

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