Bitcoin holders booked about $4.5 billion in realized losses over a recent two day window, the largest loss print in roughly three years, according to a CryptoQuant chart tracking Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss. The same chart shows Bitcoin trading near $89,200 at the latest reading, after a pullback from late 2025 highs.
Realized loss spike signals stress, and it can reshape the next move
The CryptoQuant NRPL series shows a deep red bar near the far right edge, marking a sharp jump in coins sold at a loss. In past cycles, similar loss spikes tended to appear when leveraged traders and short term holders exited at once, while longer term holders waited for clearer direction.
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL). Source: CryptoQuant
A prior episode with comparable capitulation came when Bitcoin traded around $28,000 after a long correction. That pattern matters because heavy realized losses often clear out weak positions, which can reduce near term selling pressure if the rush to exit fades.
Still, a loss spike does not guarantee an immediate bottom. If realized losses stay elevated for several sessions, Bitcoin can keep probing lower as sellers test demand. However, if the indicator cools quickly and price holds above recent support zones, the setup often shifts toward a stabilization phase, with sharp rebounds possible as forced selling eases.
Bitcoin CME gaps point to nearby upside targets
Meanwhile, Bitcoin now shows two open CME futures gaps above spot price, according to a TradingView chart shared by analyst Ted Pillows. The first gap sits near $89,350, while the second clusters around $93,000, levels that formed during recent downside volatility on the CME Bitcoin futures market.
BTC1! 45 CME. Source: Ted Pillows on X
CME gaps matter because Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange stop trading over the weekend, while spot markets keep moving. When price reopens on Monday, those gaps often act like magnets as liquidity returns. Since October 2025, every visible Bitcoin CME gap has filled within about two weeks, creating a consistent short term tendency rather than a one off event.
If that pattern holds, price action may gravitate first toward the $89,350 zone, which also aligns with a nearby consolidation area on the intraday chart. A clean move through that level would leave the $93,000 gap as the next upside reference, especially if selling pressure continues to ease after the recent realized loss spike.
Still, timing matters. Gap fills do not require a straight line move. Bitcoin can chop, retest lower support, and still close the gaps later in the window. For now, the presence of two unfilled CME gaps above price shifts short term focus upward, even as broader trend confirmation depends on how BTC behaves around the high $80,000s.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14041/bitcoin-capitulation-hits-4-5-b-as-cme-gaps-hang-over-89-350-and-93-000
