Key highlights:
- Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in 2026 if dollar liquidity expands significantly.
- Weak Bitcoin performance in 2025 is attributed to tightening liquidity, not structural problems with the asset.
- Hayes argues that future monetary expansion and government priorities could reignite demand for Bitcoin.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could return to new all-time highs in 2026, despite the cryptocurrency’s weak performance over the past year. According to Hayes, the key driver behind a future rally will be a sharp increase in dollar liquidity.
He argues that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance does not reflect a loss of relevance, but rather a temporary liquidity-driven cycle that has affected the broader crypto market
Bitcoin lags gold and tech as liquidity tightens
In 2025, Bitcoin declined by 14.4%, while the gold price surged 44.4%.
During the same period, technology stocks led gains in the S&P 500, delivering returns of 24.6%, outperforming the broader index by 6.6 percentage points.
Hayes has suggested that Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim its position as a leading macro asset depends heavily on an expansion of dollar liquidity. In his view, strength in gold and technology stocks highlights where capital flows when liquidity is constrained, leaving Bitcoin temporarily sidelined.
Hayes outlined several factors that he believes could fuel a dramatic increase in dollar liquidity next year. These include potential expansion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, declining mortgage rates amid easing financial conditions, and increased lending by commercial banks to government-supported strategic industries.
Why AI and defense spending matter
He has also pointed to shifting government priorities, particularly around artificial intelligence and defense spending. Hayes believes that capital is being directed toward AI-related sectors through policy decisions and government-backed initiatives, weakening traditional market signals.
Source: Arthur Hayes via Substack
As a result, technology stocks have remained resilient even as liquidity tightened, while Bitcoin, which is more sensitive to global liquidity conditions, lagged behind.
Bitcoin’s role as a monetary technology
Hayes continues to view Bitcoin primarily as a form of monetary technology whose value is closely tied to the devaluation of fiat currencies. He has emphasized that Bitcoin’s weakness in 2025 should not be misinterpreted as a structural failure, but rather as a reflection of insufficient liquidity.
According to Hayes, sustained fiat currency devaluation would be necessary for Bitcoin to move toward levels around $100,000 and beyond. Historically, periods of monetary expansion have favored Bitcoin, as investors seek alternative assets to hedge against inflation and currency debasement.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $96,448, positioning it close to psychologically significant levels if liquidity conditions begin to improve.
Source: https://coincodex.com/article/80179/bitcoins-comeback-in-2026-could-be-real-says-arthur-hayes/
