Support At $0.39 Faces Breakdown Risk As Sellers Retain Control

• ADA continues to print lower highs, with the descending trendline rejecting every recovery attempt since September.
• The $0.39–$0.40 support zone is weakening as rebounds fail to attract strong follow-through buying.
• Momentum and spot flows remain bearish, keeping downside risks elevated unless $0.42–$0.43 is reclaimed.

Cardano price today trades near $0.392, stabilizing marginally after another rejection from the descending trendline that has capped rallies since September. The short-term bounce offers temporary relief, but the broader structure remains fragile as sellers continue to dominate trend control and spot flows fail to turn supportive.

Descending Structure Remains Intact On The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Cardano remains locked in a clear sequence of lower highs. The descending trendline drawn from the September peak continues to reject every recovery attempt. The latest rejection occurred near $0.43, followed by an immediate rollover back into the $0.39 region.

Price remains below the Supertrend, which tracks near $0.34, and Parabolic SAR dots continue to print above price. Both indicators confirm that the prevailing trend has not flipped. There has been no sustained close above trend resistance since October.

The broader move since November resembles a falling structure rather than accumulation. While ADA briefly pushed out of a wedge near late December, the breakout failed within days. That failure converted the move into a continuation pattern rather than a reversal.

As long as ADA trades below the descending trendline and fails to reclaim prior breakdown levels, sellers retain control of the higher timeframe structure.

Short-term charts show ADA consolidating between $0.39 and $0.40, a zone that has now been tested multiple times over the past week. Each dip toward this area has attracted reactive buying, but each rebound has produced a lower high.

That behavior matters. Buyers are defending support, but they are not pushing price higher. This pattern typically precedes a breakdown when pressure persists.

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A clean daily close below $0.39 would invalidate the current base and expose the next downside pocket near $0.36–$0.35, an area aligned with prior demand from late November. Below that, the structure opens toward $0.32, where buyers last stepped in with conviction.

On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $0.41–$0.42, followed by the descending trendline near $0.43. Until price closes above those levels, upside attempts remain corrective.

Momentum Confirms Weak Buyer Commitment

On the 30-minute chart, RSI remains suppressed near 37–39, unable to reclaim the neutral 50 level. That signals persistent downside pressure rather than consolidation strength.

MACD remains below the zero line, with histogram bars failing to flip decisively positive. Each minor bullish crossover has faded within hours, reinforcing the lack of follow-through from buyers.

Momentum is not diverging meaningfully. It is tracking price lower. That alignment supports the view that the market is distributing rather than building a base.

Spot Flows Continue To Favor Sellers

Spot flow data adds to the bearish case. On January 8, ADA recorded approximately $1.6 million in net spot outflows. While not extreme, the consistency of negative flows across recent sessions matters more than the size.

Sustained net outflows during consolidation suggest that participants are reducing exposure on bounces instead of accumulating. That behavior explains why price has failed to reclaim resistance despite repeated tests.

Fundamentals Fail To Translate Into Price Support

Earlier this month, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson stated that 2026 could be the strongest year in the network’s history, emphasizing ecosystem development over price speculation. The comments reinforced long-term conviction but had no measurable impact on price action.

The market response was clear. ADA continued to trade lower, ignoring the narrative. For short-term traders, development optimism has not yet translated into demand.

Outlook. Will Cardano Go Up?

Cardano sits at a pivotal level.

• Bullish case: ADA holds $0.39, reclaims $0.42, and closes above the descending trendline near $0.43 with expanding volume. That would shift structure and open a move toward $0.46–$0.48.
• Bearish case: A daily close below $0.39 confirms breakdown from consolidation and exposes $0.36, with deeper downside toward $0.32 if selling accelerates.

Until resistance is reclaimed, the trend remains down. Support is holding for now, but it is weakening. Losing $0.39 hands control decisively back to sellers.