Bearish Structure Persists As Spot Outflows Cap Recovery Attempts

• ETH remains below its descending trendline and full EMA stack, keeping structure bearish.
• Buyers defend $2,900 support, but rebounds continue to lack follow-through.
• Persistent spot outflows cap recovery attempts heading into December 27.

Ethereum price today trades near $2,970 after bouncing modestly from recent lows, but the broader structure remains under pressure. Price continues to sit below its declining trendline and heavy EMA resistance, keeping buyers on the defensive. The tension heading into December 27 centers on whether ETH can stabilize above key support or if the market resumes its corrective path.

Downtrend Remains Intact Below EMA Resistance

On the daily chart, Ethereum remains locked beneath a descending trendline that has capped every rally since late August. Lower highs continue to define the structure, signaling that recovery attempts remain corrective rather than trend forming.

ETH trades below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs. The 20-day EMA near $2,999 and the 50-day EMA around $3,157 form the first resistance band. Above that, the 100-day EMA near $3,368 and the 200-day EMA near $3,387 define the broader bearish ceiling.

Bollinger Bands remain angled lower, reflecting persistent downside pressure. Price continues to trade below the mid-band, showing that momentum has not yet shifted back in favor of buyers. Until ETH reclaims the EMA cluster, sellers maintain control of the trend.

Support Holds Near $2,900 But Structure Is Fragile

The $2,900 to $2,850 zone has emerged as the most important near-term support. This area has absorbed multiple selloffs through December and aligns with recent swing lows.

Price briefly dipped toward $2,760 earlier in the month before rebounding, suggesting demand exists at lower levels. However, each bounce has stalled quickly, highlighting weak follow-through from buyers.

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A daily close below $2,850 would expose the next downside pocket toward $2,700, followed by a broader demand zone near $2,600. As long as ETH holds above $2,900, downside remains contained, but the structure offers little margin for error.

Intraday Charts Show Stabilization Without Breakout

On the 1-hour chart, Ethereum has been consolidating between $2,930 and $2,990 after a sharp recovery from recent lows. The Supertrend has flipped marginally positive near $2,912, offering short-term support.

Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below price, confirming intraday stabilization. However, momentum remains muted. Price continues to struggle near minor resistance, and volume remains light, reflecting hesitation rather than conviction.

These intraday signals point to balance, not reversal. Without a decisive break above $3,000, short-term strength risks fading back into the broader downtrend.

Spot Flows Continue To Weigh On Price

Spot flow data continues to lean bearish. On December 26, Ethereum recorded net outflows of roughly $13.3 million as price hovered near $2,970. While smaller than earlier distribution waves, the persistence of outflows suggests that sellers remain active.

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Sustained negative flows often limit upside during corrective phases. Without a shift toward consistent inflows, rallies struggle to build traction. The current flow profile aligns with a market focused on risk reduction rather than accumulation.

What Bulls Need To Shift Momentum

For Ethereum to signal a meaningful change, price must reclaim $3,000 and hold above the 20-day EMA. That would be the first sign that short-term momentum is turning.

A sustained move above $3,157 would challenge the descending trendline and open the door toward $3,368. Only a break above the 200-day EMA near $3,387 would signal a broader trend reversal.

Failure to hold $2,900 shifts focus back to the downside and increases the risk of a deeper correction.

Outlook. Will Ethereum Go Up?

Ethereum remains at a critical junction.

• Bullish case: ETH holds $2,900 and reclaims $3,000 with rising volume. A break above $3,157 would signal improving momentum and open a move toward $3,350.
• Bearish case: A daily close below $2,850 confirms support failure and exposes $2,700, with $2,600 as the next downside zone.

Until Ethereum clears its EMA resistance and trendline, the broader bias remains cautious. Stabilization is possible, but confirmation remains absent.

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