Price is pressing the range floor on the intraday chart while the daily structure still leans lower. We outline the key levels that would confirm continuation or trigger a squeeze.
Context
- ES has spent two+ weeks rotating inside 6,799–6,887. The latest move takes price back to the lower edge of that range, with momentum fading into support.
- My framework: read structure → wait for confirmation → react to levels, not headlines.
Daily structure (Bias: Cautious)
- The broader structure still suggests downside pressure while below recent range highs.
- If sellers keep control at the range floor, 6,695–6,662 is the next high-probability destination in line with the daily map.
Intraday (15-minute)
- Price is now just under Micro-1: 6,799 and testing the bottom cluster at 6,822/6,761.
- Decision area:
-
- Hold and rotate higher → squeeze back toward 6,835 → 6,865 → 6,887.
- Lose 6,761 with momentum → continuation toward 6,695 → 6,662.
What flips the bias
- A sustained reclaim above 6,887 (range high) with acceptance turns the near-term outlook neutral-to-constructive and exposes 6,915/6,940.
Invalidation and risk
- Invalidation for downside continuation: clean acceptance above 6,887.
- Invalidation for a bullish squeeze: impulsive break and hold below 6,761.
Trading note (Non-advice)
- I treat range edges as areas, not lines. I look for reaction (rejection/acceptance) before committing.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets involve risk; past performance does not guarantee future results.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-futures-slip-to-range-lows-bulls-must-defend-6-822-6-761-or-6-695-in-play-202512160937
