Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Non-farm payrolls and CPI data are looming, and the US dollar's "lifeline" is flashing red?

PANews, December 13th - Despite the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut and more dovish signals this week, the real challenges facing the field of artificial intelligence have led to a complex and divergent trend in the US stock and bond markets. The US Department of Labor's reports on non-farm payrolls, consumer inflation, and retail sales data will be released next week, potentially providing a deeper understanding of the health of the economy. Here are the key points the market will be focusing on in the coming week:

At 21:30 on Monday, the US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index will be released.

Federal Reserve Governor Milan will speak at 22:30 on Monday;

At 11:30 PM on Monday, Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the New York Federal Reserve, will speak on the economic outlook.

At 21:30 on Tuesday, the US November unemployment rate, the US November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, and the US October retail sales month-on-month rate will be released.

At 22:05 on Wednesday, Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivered the opening remarks at the 2025 Foreign Exchange Market Structure Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At 1:30 AM on Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will speak on the economic outlook.

At 21:30 on Thursday, the following data will be released: US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate/core CPI year-on-year rate; US November seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate/core CPI month-on-month rate; US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13; and the US December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Next week's US CPI data release will be a key turning point for the dollar's trajectory. If the CPI data is lower than expected (the latest figure is 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it will further confirm the rationale for the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, and the dollar may face further downward pressure; conversely, it could reverse this trend.