Exposing the myth of the Independent voter

The fastest-growing political party in the United States is the Independent Party, dwarfing growth in both the Democratic and Republican Parties. But so much remains misunderstood about the voting bloc.

Political pollster Frank Luntz pointed to a PsyPost report citing new data published in American Politics Research showing that most people identifying as Independents hold moderate ideologies with "open-mindedness." The data show that such voters are desperate for representation.

Karina Petrova wrote that many of these voters are barred from participating in the process, citing the closed primary system.

"In nearly half the country, residents who decline to choose a political party are legally prevented from voting in those early races," the report said.

Scholars clash when it comes to what an "Independent means." There is a party named the American Independent Party. Its claim to fame is that it nominated far-right, pro-segregation George Wallace to run for president in 1968. Most voters mean neither Republican nor Democrat when they think of "independent."

Early political theory treated Independents as having "a deficit of civic engagement rather than a meaningful personal ideology." Others assume that Independents are merely partisan voters trying to hide their affiliation.

Another perspective, wrote Petrova, is the idea of the frustrated voter, those who rejects both parties and the two-party system along with it.

"These individuals might hold a variety of personal convictions, but they are united by a generalized opposition to the current institutional structure of American voting," said the report.

Political scientists Eveline Dowling of the University of California, Davis, Nathan K. Micatka of the University of South Alabama and Caroline Tolbert of the University of Iowa conducted the investigation into the ideological leanings of those who purport to be Independent. They used voter data from 7.5 million unaffiliated voters and election participation from 2020, 2022 and 2023.

From the information collected, the researchers found that more often those who identify as Independents are typically younger and less likely to have earned a college degree.

Nine out of ten Independents were, indeed, "ideological moderates." It quickly dispels the myth that Independent voters are secret extremists.

Secondly, they found, particularly after the 2022 midterm election, that they want to see both parties crossing the line to create more bipartisan solutions. The highly educated are the ones who were "especially prone to assigning positive traits to the unaffiliated public," the report said.

However, the Catalist database found that it is using "use probabilistic models created by a vendor, which means the ideology scores are estimates rather than direct self-reported surveys. In addition, checking a box as an unaffiliated voter on a state registration form might involve different psychological motivations than telling a pollster you identify as an independent," the report explained, noting that the measurements used through this don't fully capture the "emotional fervor" attachment to making that choice.

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