The Bill Miller Playbook: How Lincoln Financial, Strategy, and Nabors Stack Up for Retirement Investors

The post The Bill Miller Playbook: How Lincoln Financial, Strategy, and Nabors Stack Up for Retirement Investors appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Bill Miller built his reputation at Legg Mason by beating the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years using a concentrated, contrarian, value approach. He was famous for backing misunderstood names, most notably Amazon in the early dot-com years and later Bitcoin, arguing that mispriced assets reward patient capital. That philosophy has produced huge winners and severe drawdowns.

For a retirement-focused investor, the useful question is whether a business can be counted on for durable earnings, reliable income, and manageable volatility. Below, we rank three Miller-style candidates from least to most appropriate for a retirement portfolio, ending with the top pick.

3. Strategy

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, is effectively a leveraged Bitcoin proxy wrapped around a legacy analytics software business. It held 762,099 BTC at the end of Q1 2026 and, per CEO Phong Le, 818,334 BTC as of May 5, 2026.

Shares are down 78.5% over the past year, closing at $86.93 on June 30, 2026, with a beta of 3.47. Q1 2026 delivered a $12.54 billion net loss driven by a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on Bitcoin holdings, and diluted EPS came in at a loss of $38.25 per share. The company pays no common dividend and carries $8.17 billion of long-term debt plus $229.53 million in preferred dividend obligations in Q1 alone.

Miller may love the Bitcoin thesis, but leverage, dilution, and swings of this magnitude are wrong for a retiree.

2. Nabors Industries

Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR) is a classic contrarian energy services name in the middle of a genuine deleveraging story. Net debt has fallen to $1.55 billion with net leverage of 1.7x, the lowest since 2008, and annual interest expense should decline by roughly $45 million.

Full-year 2025 diluted EPS came in at $17.39, on $3.2 billion in revenue. Shares closed at $84.01 on June 30, which was 199.8% higher than a year ago. CEO Anthony Petrello said, “2025 proved to be a transformational year for our capital structure.”

The problems for retirees are structural. Nabors last paid a meaningful dividend in 2018 at a pre-split $0.06 quarterly, then cut to $0.01 by 2019 and stopped in 2020. WTI crude swung between $56.01 and $114.58 per barrel in 2026 year to date, and 2026 capex guidance range is $730 million to $760 million. Cyclical, commodity-exposed, no income. Interesting for a value hunter, a poor fit for a retirement sleeve.

1. Lincoln National

Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC), which markets under the Lincoln Financial brand, is the cleanest Miller-style retirement fit. It trades at a trailing P/E of 4x and price-to-book ratio of 0.761, with a dividend yield of 5.1% at the $35.35 closing price on June 30.

The quarterly dividend has held at $0.45 for 16 consecutive quarters, with the next payment scheduled for August 3, 2026. Full-year 2025 adjusted operating EPS reached $8.23, covering the $1.80 annual dividend 4.6 times. Q1 2026 adjusted operating EPS was $1.66 on $5.31 billion in revenue, with Retirement Plan Services operating income up 26% year over year and the leverage ratio improving to 25.0% from 27.5%.

CEO Ellen Cooper told investors: “The cumulative impact of the actions we’ve taken, strengthening our capital foundation, optimizing our operating model, and diversifying our business mix, are translating into a more resilient, higher-quality earnings profile.”

Risks include noisy GAAP results from non-economic annuity market risk benefit swings (a $211 million GAAP net loss in Q1 2026 despite adjusted profitability), portfolio sensitivity to credit and rates, and shares down 20.6% year to date. But the analyst target of $42.58 and a portfolio yield of 4.67% against a new money yield of 5.5% point to expanding spread income.

What the Playbook Teaches Retirees

Miller’s edge was buying misunderstood businesses at cheap prices and then waiting. A retiree can borrow that mindset without inheriting the volatility. Strategy fits Miller’s Bitcoin conviction but violates every rule of retirement income. Nabors offers a genuine turnaround, yet no dividend and commodity risk keep it in the trading bucket. Lincoln Financial delivers what retirees need: a covered dividend, a an improving balance sheet, and a valuation that still assumes the worst. That is the Miller playbook adapted for a portfolio that has to pay bills, not just chase alpha.

The post The Bill Miller Playbook: How Lincoln Financial, Strategy, and Nabors Stack Up for Retirement Investors appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..