Live: Will Nike Crush Q4 Earnings and Continue Their Turnaround Tonight?

After falling from roughly $180 at its 2021 peak to around the $40 range, Nike stock now trades at about 22x forward earnings and is approaching 1x trailing sales, a valuation the company hasn’t seen since the depths of the 2008-09 financial crisis.

The question is whether the business can grow into that valuation. Analysts currently expect 22% EPS growth in fiscal 2027, even though revenue is projected to be essentially flat.

If management can show investors that North America is stabilizing, China is improving, and revenue growth is finally returning, the market may begin to price Nike as a recovery story rather than a company still searching for a bottom.

Nike’s turnaround ultimately comes down to driving revenue growth again.

The company has posted year-over-year revenue declines in six of its last nine quarters, while analysts currently expect another 2% sales decline this quarter.

Investors have shown they’re willing to look past near-term margin pressure, but they need evidence that demand is stabilizing.

For a brand as mature as Nike, sustained revenue growth is likely the clearest signal that the business has turned the corner and will be top of mind among investors tonight.

With Nike (NYSE:NKE) reporting after the close, prediction markets price a 90% probability of beating the $0.12 EPS consensus. Here’s how each side frames it.

Bull Case

• Beat streak: Four consecutive EPS beats, with Q3 surprising by 24.25%.
• Insider conviction: CEO Hill bought 47,320 shares near $42.26 in April, alongside directors Cook, Rogers, and Swan.
• Wholesale and North America momentum: North America wholesale grew 11%; Running rose over 20%.

Bear Case

• Profitability eroding: Q3 net income fell 34.51%; gross margin compressed 130 bps.
• China guidance: CFO Friend guided Q4 China down approximately 20%.
• Sell-the-news pattern: Shares are down 33.87% YTD, with average 1-week post-earnings change of -3.71%.
• Converse collapse: -35% YoY, EBIT now a loss.

With Nike (NYSE:NKE) reporting after the close, here is what to listen for on the call.

Top 5 Analyst Questions

• Are Win Now actions still on track to finish by calendar year-end?
• Is Greater China stabilizing after the 10% currency-neutral Q3 decline?
• When does gross margin inflect in Q2 FY2027?
• What stops the Converse bleed after the -35% Q3 drop?
• Can Nike Direct/Digital return to growth?

Key Topics & Buzzwords

• Listen for: “Sport Offense,” “integrated marketplace,” sell-through, NIKE MIND traction.

Red Flags

• EMEA inventory still elevated, withdrawn FY27 guidance, or tariff impact exceeding the guided 250 basis points.
• With shares -33.87% YTD, tone matters as much as the numbers.

Nike has already laid out much of its turnaround strategy, making tonight’s earnings report an important bridge to the company’s fall Investor Day.

CEO Elliott Hill recently said the company’s “Win Now” initiatives remain on track to be substantially completed by year-end, with full long-term financial guidance expected this fall.

While analysts expect Nike to earn just $0.11 per share, the bigger key questions for the business are whether gross margins continue to recover, whether sales trends in China show signs of stabilizing, and whether management strikes a confident tone about the pace of the turnaround.

CEO Hill’s recent open-market stock purchase has also raised expectations that leadership believes the business is approaching an inflection point. If Nike can pair solid execution with a constructive outlook, investor sentiment could finally begin catching up with the company’s improving operating fundamentals.