SpaceX (SPCX) Stock: Should You Buy Before Earnings — Or Wait for the Lockup Drop?

TLDR

• SpaceX (SPCX) stock is up 15% from its IPO price after one full week of trading
• Q2 earnings are expected late July or early August, with the first insider lockup expiring the day after
• The IPO raised approximately $86 billion, with Elon Musk holding an 85% ownership stake
• Options traders are using SpaceX to build “synthetic stock” positions ahead of potential OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs
• Some analysts view the stock as overpriced heading into the earnings report

SpaceX (SPCX) stock is currently trading around $157, up 15% from its IPO price of $135 after just one week on the market. That early run has left some investors wondering whether now is the right time to buy, or whether it makes sense to wait for a better entry point.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp, SPCX

The next major catalyst is the Q2 earnings report, which is expected sometime in late July or early August covering the three-month period ending June 30.

But the earnings date comes with an added layer to consider. SpaceX has a staggered lockup structure, and the first lockup period expires the day after the Q2 report drops.

What the Lockup Expiry Means

In a standard IPO, insiders are locked out of selling for 180 days. SpaceX went a different route, setting multiple staggered windows for when restrictions lift.

The first of those windows opens the day after Q2 earnings. That means the market could see a wave of new supply hit almost immediately after the report.

Even if earnings come in strong, that added selling pressure could weigh on the stock price. It’s a dynamic worth factoring in before buying ahead of the report.

The IPO was oversubscribed, raising around $86 billion including the overallotment. The company is currently valued at $2.4 trillion, with Musk holding roughly 85% of the company.

Before the IPO, SpaceX also announced plans to acquire Cursor, which moved the stock last week.

How Options Traders Are Playing It

On the options side, SPCX has quickly become one of the most active names in the market. When options listed two days after the IPO, implied volatility ran 30% to 40% above where it eventually settled.

That premium created opportunities for volatility sellers. Strategies like cash-secured puts, call spreads, risk reversals, and collars have all been flagged as early plays by institutional traders.

One approach making the rounds: sell two January $145 puts to fund a January $165 call, with the stock around $156. It costs nothing upfront and profits if the stock rallies past $165.

Another involves a call spread — buying the June $165 call and selling the June $230 call for a net cost of around $20.70, with a max profit of $44.30 if the stock hits $230 at expiration.

Institutional investors are also using SpaceX’s early trading patterns to map out positioning ahead of expected IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic later this year.

Big stock holders have been using collared positions — selling upside calls to buy downside puts — as a hedge against near-term volatility.

On Monday, SPCX dropped 16% in a single session, giving traders a taste of how volatile this name can be at this stage.

As of now, SPCX last traded at $157.09, with a 52-week range of $147.11 to $225.64.

The post SpaceX (SPCX) Stock: Should You Buy Before Earnings — Or Wait for the Lockup Drop? appeared first on CoinCentral.