Gold Steady as Iran Deal Eases Inflation and Fed Meeting Looms

TLDR

• Gold prices are largely flat on Wednesday, trading around $4,327–$4,344 per ounce after four straight sessions of gains.
• A U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement, which includes provisions for Iran to resume oil exports, has pushed crude prices lower and eased inflation fears.
• Lower energy prices have reduced expectations for tighter monetary policy, which is generally positive for non-yielding assets like gold.
• The U.S. dollar has weakened to a 10-day low, giving gold additional support.
• All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to hold rates steady but could signal future direction.

Gold prices are holding near recent highs on Wednesday as traders digest a major geopolitical development and wait for the Federal Reserve’s first policy statement under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $4,327.56 an ounce as of early Wednesday morning. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2% at around $4,344–$4,347. The metal had gained ground across four straight sessions after bouncing from multi-month lows near $4,000 per ounce.

Iran Peace Deal Cools Energy and Inflation Fears

The main driver behind recent gold moves is a U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement. The deal allows Iran to resume oil exports and extends a ceasefire while longer-term negotiations continue.

That development has pushed crude oil prices sharply lower. With energy prices falling, investors have started pulling back expectations for tighter monetary policy.

That shift helps gold. As a non-yielding asset, gold tends to do better when interest rates are expected to stay low or fall.

The weaker dollar has also helped. The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to a 10-day low, and a softer dollar typically makes gold more attractive to buyers using other currencies.

That said, the Iran deal has not removed all uncertainty from the market. Lingering geopolitical risk and cautious investor sentiment are keeping demand for gold supported, according to MUFG analyst Soojin Kim.

Fed Decision Is the Next Big Test

The Federal Reserve wraps up its latest policy meeting on Wednesday. It is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

But the real focus is on the Fed’s updated economic projections and its interest rate “dot plot,” which maps out where policymakers see rates heading in the coming months and years.

If the Fed signals it still plans to cut rates later in 2025, that would likely support gold further. If the tone turns hawkish, it could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, which would put pressure on gold’s recent gains.

This is the first Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, who took over from Jerome Powell. Markets will pay close attention to his tone and language.

Underlying demand for gold also remains solid. A recent World Gold Council survey found that 45% of central bank reserve managers plan to increase their gold holdings over the next year.

Other Metals

Silver rose 0.5% to $70.34 per ounce. Platinum fell 1.1% to $1,788.72 per ounce.

Copper also moved. London Metal Exchange copper futures edged up 0.3% to $13,833.33 a ton, while U.S. copper futures rose 1% to $6.54 a pound.

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