Daily Market Update: Bitcoin and Stock Futures Jump as US-Iran Peace Deal Sends Oil Tumbling

TLDR

• Bitcoin rose 2.1% to around $65,800, its highest price in nearly two weeks
• The US and Iran reached a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• Oil fell sharply, with WTI crude dropping nearly 5% to $81 a barrel
• US stock futures jumped, with Nasdaq 100 futures leading gains at up 1.9%
• SpaceX shares surged over 19% in their public debut, pushing its market cap above $2 trillion

The US and Iran have reached a peace agreement, and markets responded quickly. Bitcoin climbed, stocks futures surged, and oil dropped as traders unwound months of geopolitical tension.

Bitcoin Rallies as Iran Risk Premium Fades

Bitcoin traded around $65,844 on Monday, up 2.1% over 24 hours. That puts it about 9% above the sub-$60,000 low it hit last week, its weakest level since October 2024.

The token hit a low near $63,722 in early Asian trading hours before the deal news broke.

The rally spread across crypto markets. Ether rose 2.5% to $1,721. Solana gained 3.6% to $71. XRP added 3.2% to $1.19. Hyperliquid’s HYPE was the top performer, up 7.5% to nearly $65.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal first. President Donald Trump followed, posting on Truth Social that the agreement was “complete.” A formal signing ceremony is expected Friday in Switzerland.

Trump said he authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route. Iran is set to receive financial benefits in exchange for following the terms.

Oil Drops, Stock Futures Surge

Brent crude fell more than 4% toward $83 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate dropped nearly 5% to $81 a barrel. The moves reflect easing fears over oil supply disruptions that had kept energy prices elevated since late February.

Dow futures climbed 1%. S&P 500 futures gained 1.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures led the move, jumping 1.9%. Asian stocks rose more than 3%, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 on track for a record close.

The dollar fell against major peers.

The connection between oil and crypto had been direct. Higher oil had fed expectations of higher interest rates, which pulled money out of risk assets including Bitcoin. A lower oil price runs that in reverse.

SpaceX Debut Adds to Market Momentum

Wall Street also got a boost from SpaceX’s public market debut. Shares surged more than 19% in their first trading session, pushing the company’s market value above $2 trillion. The stock added another 3% in after-hours trading.

Markets are entering a shortened trading week with that momentum intact.

Looking ahead, investors are watching Federal Reserve policy. Markets are currently pricing in a better than 98% probability that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Two demand questions remain open for Bitcoin specifically. Strategy’s earlier disclosure that it sold 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred share dividends rattled confidence in institutional buying. ETF outflows also added pressure. Neither of those issues is resolved by a peace deal.

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