Ghana Mineral Output Set to Rise Strongly in 2026

Ghana’s mining sector is heading for another year of robust expansion in 2026, with output across gold, manganese, bauxite and diamonds forecast to climb on the back of a small-scale gold boom and recent policy reforms.

Small-scale boom reshapes Ghana’s gold profile

At the Ghana Chamber of Mines‘ 98th Annual General Meeting in Accra, outgoing president Michael Edem Akafia set out an ambitious production outlook. Large-scale gold output is forecast to reach between 3.2 million and 3.4 million ounces in 2026, while small-scale miners are expected to produce 2.9 million to 3.5 million ounces. If realised, that would cement small-scale operators as central to Ghana’s gold supply, narrowing the gap with, or even surpassing, large-scale producers.

The forecasts follow a sharp step-up in 2025. Attributable gold production rose from 4.82 million ounces in 2024 to 5.94 million ounces in 2025, a 23.41% increase. The driver was small-scale mining, where output jumped 63.82% to 3.11 million ounces. For the first time in more than a century, small-scale producers delivered 52.4% of national gold output in 2025.

Akafia linked this performance to recent government reforms, including the establishment of the Ghana Gold Board, which has helped formalise and channel small-scale production into official supply chains. The result is a more diversified production base that reduces concentration risk for offtakers and refiners, while creating new counterparties across the value chain.

However, large-scale mines saw output edge lower. Production from this segment fell by nearly 3%, from 2.92 million ounces in 2024 to 2.83 million ounces in 2025. That decline underlines the need for reinvestment, timely lease renewals and a stable fiscal regime if existing operations are to sustain or expand capacity.

Rising fiscal take, higher volumes – but growing policy risk

The bullish 2026 outlook extends beyond gold. Manganese production is projected at 5.0 million to 6.0 million tonnes, bauxite at 2.5 million to 3.0 million tonnes, and diamonds at 150,000 to 250,000 carats. Together, these volumes would reinforce Ghana’s position as a diversified minerals producer and expand feedstock for downstream processing ambitions over time.

Mining’s macroeconomic role has already strengthened. In 2025, the mining and quarrying sector remained Ghana’s largest source of direct domestic tax receipts, paying GHS 23.11 billion in taxes, up from GHS 20.87 billion in 2024. Mineral export earnings surged from US$11.98 billion to US$21.36 billion, lifting the sector’s share of total merchandise exports to more than 68%. Chamber member companies also spent about US$7.14 billion within Ghana in 2025, equivalent to nearly 73% of their realised mineral revenue. This underscores the sector’s role in domestic demand, supplier industries and local content.

Against that backdrop, Akafia warned that cost and policy pressures are intensifying. He highlighted rising operating costs, illegal mining, policy uncertainty and concerns over security of tenure as key issues that need prompt attention. In particular, recent increases in the sector’s fiscal burden, including changes to the mineral royalty regime, could erode competitiveness and deter future capital spending if not calibrated carefully.

The 2026 production targets are therefore explicitly conditional. They depend on policy certainty, regulatory reforms, timely renewal of mining leases, improved governance of small-scale mining and sustained investment across the minerals value chain. For investors, that places Ghana’s tax regime, licensing timelines and enforcement consistency among the core variables to track.

For now, the sector has shown remarkable resilience and remains a vital driver of Ghana’s economic development, Akafia said as he handed over leadership of the Chamber.

For institutional investors and operators, the next phase will hinge on whether policymakers match the sector’s growth with a stable, competitive operating framework. If they do, the projected surge in Ghana mineral output positions the country as one of West Africa’s most compelling destinations for long-term mining capital.

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