U.S. Iran deal set to reopen Strait of Hormuz could be signed in 24 hours, Pakistan mediator claims

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Saturday that Washington and Iran have reached an agreement on the framework of a peace deal and that his country expects an electronic signing within 24 hours, although Iranian officials have quickly poured cold water on that timeline.

The proposed deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carried roughly 20% of global oil supply before the conflict began in late February. It would also end the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and extend the current ceasefire by 60 days.

“We are closer to a peace deal than ever before,” Sharif wrote on X. He added that Pakistan was preparing for an electronic signing ceremony followed by technical talks next week. Trump reposted Sharif’s statement on Truth Social.

Iran pushes back on timing

Hours after Sharif’s announcement, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told state media that the signing is not expected to happen on Sunday. He, however, left the door open for the coming days but clearly cautioned against putting specific numbers to the timeline.

“Due to the other side’s inconsistency, we should remain cautious in making any statements about this process,” Baghaei said, according to Reuters.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had struck a more optimistic tone on Friday, telling state television that a memorandum of understanding “could happen within the next one or two days.” He also declared that “Iran is the winner of the war with the U.S.,” a sentiment Washington is not privy to nor interested in endorsing.

Deal interests on both sides

Multiple sources briefed on the draft terms told Reuters that the agreement calls for the U.S. to begin unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets and to also waive sanctions on Iranian oil exports. In exchange, Tehran would reopen the strait to commercial shipping of crude and other products.

According to NBC News, the strait would reopen without tolls and prewar shipping lanes would be restored within about 30 days. However, Araghchi had a different tune on Friday, saying the country intended to charge a “service fee” for ships transiting the waterway and that its “sword will remain poised over the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely.”

The most contentious issue, Iran’s nuclear program, would be deferred to a separate 60-day negotiation window. A U.S. official told Reuters the agreement would ultimately lead to dismantling Iran’s enrichment program and destroying its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Araghchi said Tehran wants to keep the uranium in a diluted form, and sources told Reuters that Iran has not accepted any form of dismantling of its nuclear programs.

Sen. Lindsey Graham warned on X that the terms described by Iranian media would be “awful” and that Trump’s position on nuclear enrichment “must hold.”

More fighting amid diplomatic conversations, oil markets react

Even as both sides signaled progress in peace talks, the war continued to rage in the Middle East. The U.S. Central Command said on Friday that Iran launched several drones at commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and that American forces shot them all down, according to NBC News and CNN.

The conflict, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, has killed thousands of people and driven global energy prices to record highs. A ceasefire reached in mid-April effectively collapsed this week after both sides resumed targeted drone strikes.

Oil markets have reacted to all the back and forth in diplomatic conversations. U.S. crude futures for July delivery fell to $84 per barrel on Saturday, while Brent crude dropped to around $87, according to NBC News. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that a deal would bring lower energy costs for Americans and predicted resolution “as soon as this weekend or Monday.”

Israel stays on the sidelines

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would not be party to the memorandum of understanding, according to Reuters. Araghchi said the deal would end the war in Lebanon, implying an Israeli withdrawal from its currently occupied areas in the region.

Israel’s defense minister has stated that no withdrawal would take place, and a senior Israeli official told Reuters that Israel expects to retain freedom to act against threats.

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