Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Is Stuck. These Three Earnings Could Unlock It

TLDR

• Nvidia closed at $198.45 on Friday, slipping below the watched $200 level
• The stock has only held $200 consistently in two periods since late 2025
• Earnings from GlobalFoundries, Arista Networks, and Super Micro Computer this week could shift sentiment
• Institutional investors including State Street and Geode Capital hold major stakes in NVDA
• Nvidia reports its own earnings on May 20; analyst consensus price target sits at $275.25

Nvidia closed at $198.45 on Friday, slipping 0.5% after briefly trading above $200 during the session. Monday premarket had the stock down another 0.2% to $198.16.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The $200 level has become a key psychological marker for the stock. Since late 2024, NVDA has only managed to consistently hold that level during two windows: late October through early November 2025, and mid-to-late April 2026.

The stock fell below $200 last Thursday and failed to close back above it Friday, raising the question of how long before it can hold that level again.

Three companies closely tied to the chip and AI space — GlobalFoundries, Arista Networks, and Super Micro Computer — are all due to report earnings Tuesday. Positive results from any of them could help rebuild confidence around chip demand.

Nvidia’s own earnings are scheduled for May 20. Last quarter, the company reported $1.62 EPS, beating estimates of $1.54, on revenue of $68.13 billion — up 73.2% year over year.

Institutional Buying Remains Strong

Despite the price wobble, institutional investors haven’t been stepping back. State Street holds over 978 million NVDA shares valued at roughly $154.5 billion. Geode Capital Management owns about 579 million shares worth over $91 billion.

Norges Bank also entered a new position last quarter, valued at approximately $51.4 billion. In total, 65.27% of NVDA stock is held by institutional investors and hedge funds.

WorthPointe LLC increased its stake by 43.2% in Q4, bringing its holdings to 8,682 shares worth around $1.6 million. Manning & Napier also boosted its position by roughly 192,878 shares.

On the insider side, EVP Ajay K. Puri sold 300,000 shares at $182.25 in March, totaling $54.7 million. CFO Colette Kress sold 20,000 shares at $174.89 in the same month. Insiders have sold roughly $171 million worth of stock over the last quarter.

Analyst Targets Remain Well Above Current Price

Wall Street analysts aren’t flinching. The consensus price target on NVDA sits at $275.25, with 48 analysts rating the stock a Buy and four giving it a Strong Buy. Only two analysts have it at Hold.

Wolfe Research has a $275 target with an Outperform rating. JPMorgan has a $265 target with an Overweight call. Morgan Stanley set a $260 target in early March. Rothschild & Co Redburn raised their target from $245 to $268.

Nvidia’s market cap sits at $4.82 trillion. The 52-week range runs from $110.82 to $216.82, with current price sitting well below the high.

The company’s PEG ratio of 0.65 suggests analysts see the valuation as reasonable relative to expected growth. The 50-day moving average is $186.75 and the 200-day sits at $186.18 — both below the current price.

Nvidia pays a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share, with an annualized yield of 0.0%.

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