XRP’s 2-Month RSI Hits Make-or-Break 50 Level: Here’s What’s Next for Ripple’s Price

A widely followed crypto analyst says XRP’s two-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to the 50 mark, a level he’s calling the dividing line between a continued macro reset and the start of a fresh expansion phase.

The call comes with the asset trading near $1.12, down nearly 5% over the past day and roughly 18% in the last month.

RSI at the 50 Line

EGRAG CRYPTO, posting on X on June 19, laid out what he sees as a recurring pattern on XRP’s longer-term chart, namely a major spike, then a cooldown, then a reset, finished off by an expansion. According to him, the token’s two-month RSI is now sitting right at that 50 threshold, which he frames as a battlefield level rather than a clean signal in either direction.

His reasoning is that staying above 50 means momentum is trying to stabilize, while losing it “with conviction” will open up the door to a deeper pullback toward the 43.66 RSI zone.

A reclaim of the 52.85 to 55.45 range would, in his view, mark the point where macro momentum starts repairing itself. From there, he pointed to 80 RSI as the level where the more aggressive upside scenario comes into play.

The analyst paired that with a separate read on XRP’s 2-month chart, which he said is forming an ascending triangle with an A-B-C-D-E structure. Per his assessment, the first four legs are complete, and the token may now be working through the final “E” wave before it attempts a breakout.

However, he was careful to note that none of his price targets are active yet, with XRP needing to first hold rising support, reclaim its 7-week moving average, and clear resistance around $2.00 to $2.10 before the broader Fibonacci-based targets, which range from $9.50 up to an “extreme cycle extension” near $100, become relevant.

That framework echoed another thread EGRAG posted earlier in the week, where he mapped out three historical pump scenarios for XRP based on a larger triangle pattern. Here, he said the conservative case was near $6.50 to $9.27, with a “balanced” cycle case at around $13, and an extreme case near $60, all modeled on the Ripple token’s first major cycle move.

Price Action and On-Chain Backdrop

Looking at the market, XRP has been on a tough stretch, sliding below the $1.20 support level following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and presser, which led some analysts to warn that a rejection at $1.20 to $1.21 could send the #6 token toward $1.00.

On-chain activity has also cooled off, as active addresses dropped by nearly 50% in the last two weeks, according to analyst Ali Martinez. In addition, during the past 5 days, big holders have released more than 30 million XRP, although they still hold almost 70% of the asset’s whole supply.

But there’s still a bright spot at least, that being the performance of spot XRP ETFs, which have kept attracting inflows even during the times when both Bitcoin and Ethereum funds were seeing outflows. According to data from SoSoValue, this past week, net inflows up to June 18 have hit $10.66 million, with BTC ETFs bleeding $226 million in that time and those tracking ETH losing $10.05 million.

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