Summary
Show
- Bitcoin climbed above $66,500 after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, lifting the token about 1.5% in 24 hours.
- Derivatives data show risk appetite returning, with crypto trading volumes, open interest and liquidations of short positions all rising, and funding rates and implied volatility suggesting a more balanced, less fearful market.
- Sentiment has turned negative on Avalanche and its AVAX token as attention shifts to rivals like Solana and Sui, though some analysts see the pessimism as a potential contrarian signal.
Bitcoin BTC$66,584.19 rose after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high, pushing the price from around $65,600 in Asian trading to more than $66,500 during European hours.
The largest cryptocurrency has added 1.5% over the past 24 hours, continuing its recovery from a June 5 low below $60,000. Several altcoins posted even stronger gains.
Stellar’s XLM, Injective’s INJ and Uniswap’s UNI rose between 13% and 16%, ranking among the best performers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. UNI's gain comes after Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Uniswap and set a long-term price target for the token of $100 by 2030.
Memecoin SIREN extended its decline, falling another 21% in 24 hours. The token has now lost a staggering 77% month-to-date. Blockchain data trackers on X pointed to a large holder, or whale, offloading coins representing 92% of the token’s supply as the main driver behind the collapse.
Derivatives Positioning
- Crypto markets are showing renewed risk appetite. Total 24-hour trading volume jumped 51% to $207 billion, open interest rose 2.4% to $113.41 billion and liquidations have surged 64% to $561 million, with shorts accounting for the bulk of the forced exits.
- Leverage is coming back too. BTC futures open interest (OI) has risen to 747,000 BTC, a third straight daily increase and the highest since June 4. The steady climb suggests investors are willing to take on risk again, a message reinforced by annualized perpetual funding rates holding near zero and a positive 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD). Both point to a balanced, recovering market rather than speculative excess.
- Ether futures OI ticked up to 14.20 million ETH from a recent low of 13.64 million, a modest but directionally encouraging move.
- Among the major cryptocurrencies, LTC$45.59 is the standout. Its OI has risen 6.6% to 6.86 million tokens in 24 hours. While impressive in relative terms, the absolute level tells a more cautious story. It is still just a one-week high and remains well below January's peak of 9.29 million tokens. Overall positioning, therefore, remains light.
- On the losing side, TON, BCH and HBAR all saw OI decline over the past 24 hours, signaling capital outflows. TON is the most notable; its rebranding to GRAM has done nothing for trader sentiment and 24-hour CVD is the most negative among the majors, a sign the market is being driven by sellers hitting bids at market rather than passive limit orders.
- The volatility picture offers bulls some comfort. Both BVIV and EVIV — the 30-day implied volatility indexes for BTC and ETH, respectively — have nearly fully reversed the spike seen in the first week of the month. The fear that drove that spike has ebbed, and the implied volatility retreat supports the case for a continued recovery.
- On Deribit, BTC puts at strikes between $58,000 and $64,000 are among the most active of the past 24 hours. Block flows featured put condors, a non-directional strategy designed to profit from a specific range of volatility rather than a directional bet.
Token talk
- Avalanche was the most-discussed token on Monday as crypto broadly rallied, though in AVAX's case, the conversation turned sharply negative. The ratio of positive to negative commentary has fallen to about 0.85, according to Santiment, meaning bearish posts now outnumber bullish ones, down from one of its most optimistic readings back in January.
- The negative chatter is about mindshare. It centers on whether Avalanche can keep pace with faster-growing rivals, with developer activity and user growth seen shifting toward Solana and Sui, Santiment said.
- Price backs the mood. AVAX trades around $6.88, near the low end of its recent range and well below the near-$10 level it held a month ago.
- There's a contrarian flip angle, however. Santiment notes that extreme negative sentiment has often marked opportunities rather than tops. Markets can reverse when the crowd turns overwhelmingly bearish. It made the same case on XRP days earlier.
- The fundamentals haven't vanished. Avalanche still holds institutional partnerships, government-linked projects and its subnet design, which lets teams launch custom app-specific blockchains. The bear case is about momentum, not a business falling apart.
