Ayala Land rises on bargain hunting, expansion plans

By Heather Caitlin P. Mañago, Researcher

SHARES of Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) rose last week as investors hunted for bargains after the property developer announced fresh investments in its 320-hectare (ha) Lio estate in El Nido, Palawan.

Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) data showed that ALI was the seventh most actively traded stock last week, with a total of 58.12 million shares worth P875.86 million changing hands from June 29 to July 3.

The property developer closed at P15.44 per share, up 0.9% from the previous Friday’s P15.30 close, outperforming the property sector’s 0.4% increase but trailing the Philippine Stock Exchange index’s (PSEi) 1.9% growth.

Year to date, the stock has dropped by 31.2% from its P22.45 close on Dec. 29, underperforming the property sector’s 16.7% decline and contrasting with the PSEi’s 2.2% gain.

Toby Allan C. Arce, head of sales trading at Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc., said ALI’s gain reflected company-specific optimism tempered by broader property-sector headwinds.

He said sentiment was supported by ALI’s plan to further develop the 320-ha Lio estate in El Nido, Palawan.

“The project… strengthened the company’s long-term growth narrative by highlighting its focus on high-value destination estates and recurring income opportunities,” Mr. Arce said in a Viber message, adding that bargain hunting likely emerged as investors viewed ALI’s valuation as “increasingly attractive relative to its fundamentals.”

Richard G. Laneda, research senior manager at COL Financial Group, Inc., said the stock is currently “cheap,” although he noted that the Lio announcement had a negligible impact on the immediate price movement.

“Shares are cheap and a rebound from the recent low is very likely,” he said in an e-mail.

ALI said in a statement last Monday that it is focusing on the next phase of Sitio Aplaya, a mixed-use development within the 320-ha master-planned estate.

“The next phase of Lio is about strengthening how the estate functions as a connected, lived-in destination. These investments reinforce the relationship between nature, community, and enterprise within a single integrated framework,” said Cris Zuluaga, group head for Ayala Land Leisure Estates.

ALI said the estate is being positioned to serve a broader customer base beyond short-term tourists, including residents and entrepreneurs.

The company said its investments will fund infrastructure and community improvements to enhance connectivity and internal circulation within the estate.

Looking ahead, Mr. Arce said investors will likely “closely monitor developments in domestic interest rates, inflation, and the peso,” which remain key determinants of property demand and financing conditions.

Mr. Laneda warned that bond yields are a critical metric, as “higher bond yields signal higher rates in the future which may hurt future demand for projects.”

Mr. Arce added that operational metrics such as residential reservation sales, mall foot traffic, and the execution of key estates like Lio and Nuvali will be key indicators of momentum.

In the first quarter, ALI’s attributable net income fell by 22.7% year on year to P5.67 billion from P6.95 billion, while gross revenue declined by 13.9% to P37.48 billion from P43.56 billion.

For the second quarter, Mr. Arce forecast ALI’s net income at about P5.74 billion, with full-year earnings seen at approximately P27 billion.

He pegged immediate support at P14.50, with a deeper floor between P14 and P13.50, and resistance at P15.32, followed by a more significant barrier at P16.

Mr. Laneda, meanwhile, forecast full-year net income at P24.5 billion.

He placed support at P12.50 and resistance at P16.