Hablando del salario mínimo, hay dos cuestiones relevantes: cuánto subirá para 2026 y qué impacto tendrá la decisión de la Comisión Nacional de Salarios Mínimos en el mercado laboral, la inflación y en la narrativa oficial.Hablando del salario mínimo, hay dos cuestiones relevantes: cuánto subirá para 2026 y qué impacto tendrá la decisión de la Comisión Nacional de Salarios Mínimos en el mercado laboral, la inflación y en la narrativa oficial.

¿Podemos culpar al mínimo del desplome en la creación de empleos formales?

Hablando del salario mínimo, hay dos cuestiones relevantes: cuánto subirá para 2026 y qué impacto tendrá la decisión de la Comisión Nacional de Salarios Mínimos en el mercado laboral, la inflación y en la narrativa oficial.

El aumento quedará muy cerca del 12% para la mayor parte del país y, quizá, sea menor para la llamada Zona Libre de la Frontera Norte. No se justifica tener un diferencial de 50.7% entre los dos mínimos oficiales, son 278.80 pesos diarios en casi todo México y 419.88 en la frontera.

Si se decide un aumento de 12%, tendremos un salario mínimo de 312 pesos diarios. Al tipo de cambio del 27 de noviembre, serían 17 dólares diarios, un poco más de 500 dólares mensuales. Lejos de los más altos de América Latina, que son Uruguay con 867 y Costa Rica que tiene 725 aproximadamente. En el caso de la frontera norte, con un aumento de 12%, quedaría en 470 pesos con 26 centavos, equivalentes a un poco más de 750 dólares mensuales.

¿Qué impacto tendría llegar a salarios de 9,471 pesos mensuales y 14,295 en la frontera? Al Gobierno le interesa mantener una trayectoria de crecimiento de los salarios y se ha fijado como objetivo que para 2030 el mínimo pueda comprar 2.5 canastas básicas de productos. A fines de 2025, el mínimo puede comprar 1.8 canastas y podría llegar muy cerca de 2, suponiendo que no haya un rebote de la inflación significativo.

Esto nos lleva a una cuestión: ¿hay riesgo inflacionario en el aumento del salario mínimo? Hay voces que lo advierten. Entre 2018 y 2025 pasamos de 88 a 278 pesos diarios y no hubo un impacto notable en la inflación. El aumento en los precios tuvo otras causas, coinciden los expertos, pero nada garantiza que en los próximos años siga siendo así. De hecho, ya dejamos atrás el punto en el que el salario mínimo en México era extremadamente bajo, uno de los más bajos en América Latina y el Caribe.

¿Está afectando el aumento al salario mínimo la generación de empleo formal? Hay indicios de que es así. Entre enero y septiembre de 2025 se perdieron 553,000 puestos de trabajo en el sector formal, mientras que se crearon 599,000 empleos en la informalidad. Algo está pasando: la creación de empleo en lo que va de 2025 es de apenas 45,000 puestos en los primeros nueve meses. Sin contar el año de la pandemia, es el número más bajo en una década. Es evidente que muchos empleos “migraron” de la formalidad a la informalidad, aunque es imposible saber cuánta de esta “migración” se debe al mínimo. En México es caro y complicado generar puestos de trabajo formales.

¿Podemos culpar al mínimo de este desplome en la creación de empleos? Estamos ante un asunto complejo donde hay otros factores en juego. La economía está casi estancada, con un crecimiento proyectado menor a 0.5% en 2025. La inversión privada, que es la principal responsable de la generación de empleos, trae una tendencia negativa y podría registrar una caída mayor a 7% en 2025.

En la búsqueda de “culpables” de la no generación de empleos formales, no podemos dejar de lado algunos factores no económicos, como la inseguridad. En un país donde la extorsión es el delito que más ha crecido en la última década, no debe extrañarnos que haya empresarios que prefieren cerrar su negocio que tener al extorsionador como socio.

En los próximos días, la Comisión Nacional del Salario Mínimo dará a conocer su decisión. Apuesto a que será cerca del 12% y que el Gobierno emitirá un mensaje de que seguiremos así en los próximos años. Es muy importante mantener la narrativa en uno de los temas en que la política pública mejor ha funcionado con la 4T. El aumento al mínimo ha servido para reducir el número de pobres, tanto o más que las transferencias sociales. Ha servido también para crecer la masa salarial e impulsar el mercado interno.

Hay veces que es malo tener demasiado de lo bueno, dijo Mae West, una actriz estadounidense de la primera mitad del siglo pasado. No podemos seguir indefinidamente con incrementos anuales de doble dígito del salario mínimo. Si la economía no crece, ¿cómo pagarlos? Si la generación de empleo formal se está frenando, ¿por qué actuar como si no estuviera pasando nada? Hay focos rojos en el tablero. ¿Quién dará la orden de llevar el coche al taller?

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