Belimo Stock Jumps 8% After Morgan Stanley Upgrade on Data Center Demand

TLDR

• Belimo stock jumped ~8% to CHF 941 after Morgan Stanley upgraded it from “equal-weight” to “overweight”
• Price target raised to CHF 1,100 from CHF 860, driven by data center cooling demand
• Data centers made up 17% of Belimo’s 2025 sales and drove ~50% of group growth
• Morgan Stanley projects data center revenue could reach 38% of total revenues by 2030
• Hyperscaler cloud capex forecast revised up 7% for 2026 and 18% for 2027

Belimo Holding stock surged roughly 8% on Monday, trading at CHF 941, after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Swiss valve maker and lifted its price target to CHF 1,100 from CHF 860.

BELIMO Holding AG, BLHWF

The upgrade shifted the rating from “equal-weight” to “overweight,” with the bank pointing to the AI data center buildout as the key driver behind the re-rating.

Data centers accounted for 17% of Belimo’s CHF 1.12 billion in 2025 sales, up from 11% in 2024. That segment drove approximately 50% of group growth last year, and Morgan Stanley estimates data center revenue grew more than 70% year-on-year in 2025.

The bank now expects data centers to account for more than 50% of group growth for at least the next three years, reaching 38% of total revenues by 2030.

Why Liquid Cooling Matters for Belimo

The shift from air cooling to liquid cooling in AI data centers is central to Morgan Stanley’s thesis. It moves demand toward Belimo’s higher-value products.

Belimo’s Energy Valve carries a price of roughly $1,200, compared to a group average selling price of around $130 to $150. Control valves grew 31.3% in local currency in fiscal 2025, well ahead of damper actuators at 14.4%.

Management noted on its 2025 results call that in the high-end cooling segment — specifically for chips requiring direct liquid cooling — Belimo holds “an almost dominant market share.”

Morgan Stanley also revised its U.S. hyperscaler cloud capital expenditure forecast up 7% for 2026 and 18% for 2027 following first-quarter results. The bank now projects 82% year-on-year capex growth in 2026 to $815 billion, and 38% growth in 2027 to $1.13 trillion.

Revenue and Earnings Forecasts

Morgan Stanley projects Belimo’s revenue will rise to CHF 1.31 billion in fiscal 2026, CHF 1.53 billion in 2027, and CHF 1.78 billion in 2028.

Earnings per share estimates come in at CHF 18.33, CHF 22.42, and CHF 26.20 for those respective years. The bank’s estimates run 2% above consensus for 2026, widening to 9% by 2028 and 20% by 2030.

The stock currently trades at 47.7 times Morgan Stanley’s 2026 earnings estimate. The bank argues that on a growth-adjusted basis, Belimo screens cheaper than ABB, Siemens, Halma, and IMI.

Morgan Stanley set a bull case of CHF 1,510 and a bear case of CHF 600.

The principal downside risk flagged is a change in data center architecture that could seal more liquid-cooling components inside coolant distribution units, reducing Belimo’s standalone specification power.

Monday’s move brings the stock within reach of its 52-week high of CHF 975. Belimo’s own early-2026 trading update, which showed higher sales versus the prior-year period, added further weight to the upgrade.

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