Citi Says Stablecoin Market To Soar 13x By 2030 To $4 Trillion In Revised Forecast

Citi has revised its stablecoin market forecast and now expects the sector to soar 13x by 2030, reaching a market capitalization of as high as $4 trillion.

The bank cites faster-than-expected adoption in payments and a growing reliance on decentralized finance as key factors behind the surge, while raising its bull-case forecast by $300 billion to $4 trillion by 2030.

“We argued that 2025 would be blockchain’s ChatGPT moment, with stablecoins igniting the shift,” the report said. “Now that transformation is unfolding at a remarkable pace. Cryptocurrency company listings, record fundraising and breakthroughs in technology all suggest that institutional adoption is accelerating.”

In its base case, it see the market surging to $1.9 trillion by 2030, up from a forecast of $1.6 trillion previously.

The change in the projection comes as partial deposit substitution in the US and overseas accounts for 45% of the base case, with modeling indicating that 2.5% of 2030 US bank deposits will shift to stablecoins.

Continued crypto market expansion will contribute 40% of growth through a 20% increase in annual issuance increases, while 15% comes from banknote substitution.

Stablecoins: $200 Trillion In Transactions By 2030

If stablecoins achieve a velocity similar to that of traditional fiat currencies, they could enable annual transactions of up to $100 trillion under the base case and $200 trillion in a bull case by 20230, Citi said.

But the report was also keen to note that stablecoins won’t dominate finance.

”The evolution of digital assets – stablecoins, tokenized deposits, deposit tokens – feels in some ways like the early days of the dotcom boom,” it said. ”Skeptics once again proclaim that banks will be disintermediated. But we don’t believe crypto will burn down the existing system. Rather it is helping us reimagine it.”

Stablecoins are not the answer to everything, the report said, arguing that domestic consumer payments in many countries work well, are already real-time, 24×7, and low cost.

Stablecoins may be a vital addition to the finance toolkit, it said, especially for digitally native companies and investors, as well as frontier market households looking for an easy way hold dollars, but for many, bank tokens – deposit tokens, tokenized deposits and similar – will be an easier integration.

”Cross-border payments are a different matter, but fintechs and big banks have made rapid progress here too,” it said.

Citi’s report notes that bank tokens, such as tokenized deposits, may ultimately surpass stablecoins in transaction volumes. Such a shift could be due to the increasing corporate demand for compliance with regulations and the need for real-time settlement.

Citi’s report also underscored the continued role of the US dollar, as most on-chain money remains dollar-denominated.

Related News: