Palantir (PLTR) Stock Climbs on New Government Contracts and Analyst Confidence

TLDR

• Palantir stock is down 30% from its all-time high, trading around $146
• DHS awarded Palantir a five-year, $1 billion blanket purchase agreement in February
• USDA handed Palantir a $300 million contract to modernize farm services in April
• Palantir is a finalist for an FAA air traffic management contract worth up to $32.5 billion
• Rosenblatt reiterates a Buy rating with a $200 price target ahead of May 4 earnings

Palantir’s government business has been busy. The company has picked up a string of federal contracts in recent months, even as its stock sits 30% below its record high.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

The pullback has been driven by valuation concerns and a broader rotation away from high-growth tech names. But the contract wins tell a different story about the underlying business.

In February, the Department of Homeland Security awarded Palantir a five-year blanket purchase agreement worth up to $1 billion. The deal gives agencies like CBP and ICE faster access to Palantir software, cutting out the usual competitive bidding process.

The contract could also open doors to other DHS agencies, including FEMA, the TSA, the Secret Service, and CISA.

Expanding Into New Federal Territory

In April, the USDA awarded Palantir a $300 million BPA tied to its National Farm Security Action Plan. The program, called “One Farmer, One File,” is designed to simplify how farmers access USDA services and speed up payment processing.

These deals matter because they show Palantir winning business outside its traditional home turf of defense and intelligence. Government revenue accounts for more than half of total company revenue.

There’s also a bigger opportunity on the table. Palantir is one of three finalists for an FAA contract worth up to $32.5 billion. The winning company will build AI-powered air traffic management software designed to predict problems before they happen.

The other two finalists are Thales SA and Air Space Intelligence Inc. Congress has already set aside $12.5 billion for the project.

Analysts Stay Bullish Ahead of Earnings

Rosenblatt reiterated its Buy rating and $200 price target on April 24. The firm expects Palantir to beat its Q1 guidance when it reports on May 4, projecting revenue growth of 74% and adjusted EBIT growth of 123% year-over-year.

Rosenblatt also expects the company to raise its full-year guidance, which currently calls for 61% revenue growth and 83% adjusted EBIT growth.

Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh sees Palantir as a future dominant platform in enterprise software, pointing to its ontology-based architecture and forward-deployed engineering model as key advantages in the current AI cycle.

Q4 2025 results were strong. Revenue grew 70% to $1.4 billion, marking the 10th straight quarter of acceleration. Non-GAAP net income rose 79% to $0.25 per diluted share. The company posted a Rule of 40 score of 127%.

Wall Street consensus now puts adjusted earnings growth at 57% annually through 2027. The median analyst price target sits at $200, implying 37% upside from current levels near $146.

The stock trades at a P/E of around 195–226 depending on the metric used, though a PEG ratio of 0.9 suggests the growth rate may support that valuation.

D.A. Davidson holds a Neutral rating with a $180 price target.

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