Hayes Says Buy the Crash: Bitcoin Could Hit $40K Before the Next Bull Run

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could bottom near $40,000 within six months
• He believes the AI trade has absorbed speculative capital, limiting crypto upside for now
• Hayes holds put spreads as a hedge but remains heavily long Bitcoin long-term
• MicroStrategy added 520 BTC, helping Bitcoin briefly reclaim $65,000
• A hawkish Federal Reserve and rising rate-hike odds are keeping Bitcoin under pressure

Bitcoin is trading around $62,000 and facing pressure from multiple directions. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has laid out a short-term bearish case while holding a bullish long-term view.

Hayes said in a June 12 interview that he expects Bitcoin to bottom near $40,000 within the next six months. That would be a roughly 35% drop from current prices. He holds put spreads to hedge against that scenario.

AI Is Taking the Speculative Money

Hayes argues that artificial intelligence has pulled in the marginal dollar of speculative capital this cycle. Investors chasing inflation hedges have moved toward AI stocks rather than crypto.

He reduced exposure to several tokens recently, including Hyperliquid, Near, and Zcash. He has moved some capital into Treasury bills while waiting for better opportunities.

Why Hayes Thinks Bitcoin Wins When AI Breaks

Hayes believes the AI buildout could become a bigger credit bubble than the subprime crisis. He pointed to aggressive data center spending, circular revenue deals, and debt backed by fast-depreciating chips.

GPUs are being financed on multi-year schedules even as chip technology improves quickly. That creates a mismatch between the life of the asset and the debt attached to it.

Hayes also called Ethereum one of the best large-cap setups right now. He said he would choose Ether over Bitcoin on a pure chart basis, since it has not yet reclaimed its prior all-time high.

MicroStrategy Buying and Fed Pressure

MicroStrategy added 520 Bitcoin this week and raised its cash reserves by $300 million to $1.4 billion. The buying helped Bitcoin briefly reclaim $65,000.

Analysts at QCP noted the purchase likely came through a dilutive stock program. Wintermute flagged that MicroStrategy is buying at a slower pace as funding costs rise.

The Federal Reserve held rates between 3.50% and 3.75% and removed its easing bias. The median 2026 rate projection rose to 3.8%. Markets now price a 37% chance of a December rate hike, up from 24% a month ago.

Traders are watching Thursday’s PCE inflation report. JPMorgan estimates institutions could shift $165 billion from equities into bonds by end of June, which would be the largest such move in four years.

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