GBP/USD treading water as BoE and US PCE collide

Wednesday set the trap: GBP/USD spent the early part of the week trying to defend the 1.355 area, then folded. The pair drifted lower from the European open, accelerated through the New York session, and printed a session low near 1.3460 just after 18:00 GMT, before scraping back to close near 1.3480. Three things did the damage: First, Donald Trump’s “No More Mr. Nice Guy” Truth Social post just after 08:00 GMT, which pushed Brent above $110/bbl and gave the US Dollar (USD) a fresh safe-haven bid. Then, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held at 3.5% to 3.75%, which on its own was priced to perfection but came with the most divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote since 1992. Finally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s farewell press conference leaned hawkish enough to push the 10-year US Treasury yield above 4.4%. Cable went into Thursday looking heavy.

The 90-minute window that defines the day

The Thursday calendar reads like it was designed to maximize pain. The Bank of England (BoE) rate decision drops at 11:00 GMT, alongside Minutes, the Monetary Policy Report, the Monetary Policy Summary, and the MPC vote breakdown. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 11:30 GMT. Then, 60 minutes after that, at 12:30 GMT, the US delivers the March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), Q1 advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, the Q1 Employment Cost Index, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims, all in the same release window. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) follows at 13:45 GMT. Two central banks, two inflation readings, one currency pair. The pair could whipsaw twice before lunch.

How hawkish is hawkish enough for Sterling?

The BoE consensus is for a hold at 3.75% with an 8-1 vote, the lone dissenter pushing for a hike. Markets are already pricing roughly 60 basis points of BoE tightening by year-end, and that is where the squeeze comes in. HSBC warned this week that the decision could deliver a hawkish split with more than one dissenter pushing for a rise, but flagged that sterling’s room to rally on that outcome looks limited because so much tightening is already in the curve. The bigger story may be how the BoE frames the stagflation question. A Reuters poll out last week found that 17 of 22 economists rate the risk of UK stagflation as high or very high, with BMO’s Robert Mutkin noting the energy shock has only worsened the trend. If Bailey leans into the inflation risk in his 11:30 GMT remarks, GBP can hold up. If he leans into the growth weakness and downplays the hike camp, the pair likely heads back toward the 1.346 low.

US PCE could decide it for everyone

The 12:30 GMT US data drop is where the second leg of the day lives. Headline PCE is forecast at 3.5% YoY, up from 2.8% prior. Core PCE is forecast at 3.2% YoY, up from 3.0% prior. Q1 GDP is penciled in at 2.3% annualized, a meaningful pickup from the 0.5% prior, and the Q1 Employment Cost Index at 0.8% would add to the sticky-wage narrative. Any upside surprise on PCE or GDP, and the three FOMC officials who dissented Wednesday because they wanted the easing bias stripped out start to look prescient, not contrarian. That tone hardens the Dollar bid, and GBP/USD likely tests below 1.346 toward the recent monthly congestion zone in the low 1.34s. A clean miss, and the pair gets a chance to retest the 1.350 area, although the Iran backdrop limits how far that bounce can extend.

Friday is quieter but not silent

Friday’s calendar is lighter but not empty. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI (ISM Manufacturing PMI) lands at 14:00 GMT with consensus at 53, while the Prices Paid sub-index is penciled at 80, a level that would scream sticky inflation if it prints. BoE chief economist Huw Pill speaks at 11:15 GMT, which matters because Pill has historically been more comfortable than Bailey with leaning hawkish on inflation expectations. Two prints in the same direction as Thursday’s data, and the GBP/USD range-bound thesis starts to fray.

Both central banks are stuck in the same trap

Step back from the data calendar and the longer-term picture is straightforward. Both the BoE and the Fed are dealing with the same problem from different sides of the Atlantic, an Iran-driven energy and supply shock that has lifted near-term inflation while doing nothing helpful for growth. ING wrote earlier this month that GBP/USD probably bounces around in a 1.33 to 1.36 range, driven by the Middle East dynamics until the June BoE meeting. The daily chart broadly supports that view. The pair bottomed near 1.316 in early April, rallied back above 1.357 mid-month, and is now testing the lower portion of that range. As long as the Strait of Hormuz blockade keeps Oil bid and both central banks stay frozen, the most likely outcome is more of the same chop.

The question Thursday will answer

By 13:00 GMT on Thursday, traders will know whether the BoE has more hawkish dissenters than expected, whether US inflation is reaccelerating, and whether either of those signals is strong enough to break GBP/USD out of the 1.34 to 1.36 box. The path of least resistance heading into the session looks lower, with momentum already carrying into the new daily candle and the macro backdrop firmly in the Dollar’s favour. But Cable bears have been wrong about a clean break of 1.346 every time they have tried it this month. Whether Thursday is the day that finally changes depends almost entirely on which set of central bankers blinks first.

GBP/UISD 15-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the 15-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3481, holding below the day’s open at 1.3526 and maintaining a mild intraday bearish bias as rallies remain capped beneath that reference. The Stochastic RSI hovers in positive territory near recent overbought readings, suggesting upside attempts could continue but are likely to face supply before the pair can meaningfully challenge the opening level.

On the topside, the day’s open at 1.3526 is the first notable resistance, and a break above it would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and allow a more sustainable recovery. With no clear intraday support levels defined by moving averages or nearby structural markers in this dataset, price action around 1.3481 will likely dictate the next directional move, and a failure to reclaim 1.3526 would keep the focus on further consolidation or slippage at lower levels.

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3481. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as spot remains above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3441 and the 200-day EMA at 1.3384, suggesting the broader uptrend stays supported despite recent consolidation. The latest Stochastic RSI reading around 55.0 has eased from prior overbought extremes, hinting that upside momentum is moderating but not yet reversing.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA near 1.3441, with the 200-day EMA at 1.3384 providing a deeper structural floor if sellers extend a pullback. As long as price holds above these moving averages, dips are likely to be treated as corrective within the broader bullish framework, while a daily close back below the 200-day EMA would undermine the current constructive outlook.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)